Please ignore the fact that villain is a fish that checked back an OESD then c/r NAI turn lead and call jam.
Villain checks back 988 r board in single raised pot @ 25BB.
The checking back range here varies wildly for different villains.
I think high card SDV like Ax and Kx is quite common here. Some villains only check back their slow plays here.
I can't really narrow his range too much when he checks back as we are only a couple of hands into the match and I don't know anything about him yet.
I lead the turn for value, with my flopped trips, nothing special here.
Then villain raises NAI on a 5 turn that brought a FD.
This is strange.
I'm behind better 8x, 98, 85, 99, 76, 55.
Virtually any other hand, overpairs, draws etc I'm completely crushing.
But I'm OOP and I think if I just flat, villain can get away from some of his hands if I jam lead the river or check to him on the river.
So I jam, he spew calls off and I get it in with 91% equity because his J outs have already signed up to the winning team. Happy times.
But in game, what should I be putting a typical villain on in this spot where he checks back a paired middling rainbow board in a single raised pot and then raises NAI on the turn when led into?
Am I usually just folding out the hands I'm ahead of here and getting it in vs those that I'm behind?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$14.69+$0.31
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | kotov-aleks | 500 | |
| BB | Hero | 500 |
Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB
kotov-aleks raises to 40, Hero calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
Hero checks, kotov-aleks checks
Turn (80, 2 players)
Hero bets 60, kotov-aleks raises to 120, Hero goes all-in 460, kotov-aleks goes all-in 340
River (1000, 2 players, 2 all-in)
Final Pot: 1000
kotov-aleks shows a pair of Eights
Hero shows three of a kind, Eights
Hero wins 1000 ( won +500 )
kotov-aleks lost -500
it´s hard to see villain raise as a bluff here without history.
i think slowplaying the flop is a catastrophe. it´s a flop that hits a BB´s calling range quite decent, plus you´ll get bluff raised a lot, which should make the SB bet every value hand here. if he checks back and raises the turn, 76 immediately comes to mind. it´s a reasonable hand to mimick playing Ax or Kx and go for a delayed c-bet, plus: you don´t want to get bluff raised off of your hand.
but of course we can´t def rule out flopped monsters, so if you add them in, it´s getting hard to find a call (although finding a fold is a lot harder), since villain should tend to bet fold his air OTF. if he´s got a GS like J7 or QT, calling the turn would be better than raising.
all in all the line looks like a fish who wants to be tricky, be it for value or as a bluff, although value looks more likely. i guess i´d rather just call here and bluff catch again on the river in case he is on a bluff. getting away from trips is really hard.
id let him hang himself by flatting the turn, unless you feel like he is only doing this value.. 9x isnt folding here and a lot of river cards might make him check back river. With all things mentioned, I'd still flat turn.
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Also, his range looks like Ax Kx 8x, ( highly unlikely since we have an 8). I'd say st8 draws if we were c/r'ing alot, but with fish I guess we can put in some draws and obviously alot of air. When he clicks back.. You can take away Ax Kx, which leaves 9x and some draws. ( highly unlikely 8x) I think we flat because we allow him to thin value bet 9x on river or continue to spew on missed draws. Even with an OESD he is less than a 20% chance to hit on the river, so we can happily take out 80% equity.
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This is why I was confused. Villain only credibly reps a narrow value range on the turn after checking back the flop: some slow played flop monsters, passively played 76 and 55 which checks back flop then raises when binks turn. I think villain can make a NAI raise vs a turn lead with hands like AsKs which could check back the flop and then semibluff a turn lead when they pick up a FD to go with their high card SDV.
During the hand, I suspected I might be playing my hand a bit too fast within the context of villain's range => that is villain can have a lot bluffs which he will fold to a jam relative to the thin value range he reps and the top of his value range has me completely crushed.
BUT
I felt if I flatted the turn raise I would be often missing a lot of value on the river due my positional disadvantage.
A turn flatting decision needs to incorporate into it my plan for the river on the various river cards which can bink off:
If I flat and check river, I think villain gives up with a lot of his bluffs on this board texture and checks back with SDV semibluffed overcards + FD on cards lower than 8 and when the FD hits. He won't feel great about bluffing a Q or J either because they hit all my OOP flatting range + postflop semibluffed turn lead draws so hard, so may only bluff on A or K rivers to try to fold out 9x.
If I flat and lead river, villain can call with some worse hands sure, but I think his raises are almost entirely for value once bet into. A small "blocking bet" might be best to targets villain's curious SDV and induce bluffs from his missed draws?
Still pretty confused by the line in general and subsequent value : bluff distributions we are typically playing against in this turn spot (+ subsequent river spot if we flat).
But it's probably not a big deal in terms of long term expectation because I think this line will be so infrequent that it won't matter too much.
Assuming villain has some bluffs on the turn, I now think the decision is close between flatting turn and
a) check-call river
b) underbet-call river
Dependent on villain's bluffing frequency within the context of the river card.
If I call the turn, than what? If I check on the river he has a lot of showdown hands he isn't going to bet. As said before he doesn't have that many bluffs in range, this will mean that a lot of hands will go to showdown. If I would lead out all-in on the river he would even have more folds than on the turn because off all missed draws. So than you are obligated to go for a valuebet on the river, but I think we can get more out of it. What do you guys think of a re-raise to 190? Contesting his weak re-raise and trying to test him. If he calles, the river is a great spot to go for a jam and we have some extra chips in the pot, which is already nice, but also makes sure that it is more likely he is going to call the jam on the river.
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i am not sure i like a 3bet on the turn. he´s either raising his slowplays for value or as a complete bluff. a semi bluff raise OTT is actually really bad. raising his medium strength hands (which should make up a large portion of his checking range OTF) makes even less sense. a raise will only isolate us against the very top of his range. sure, we have some extra chips in the pot, but given villain´s line, i am rather happy if we aren´t losing, so raising the turn will mostly be bad for us.
on the other hand i definetely see your point and it makes my head run through a couple of scenarios. a min3bet will definetely work against spewtards who interpret that as a weekness and 4bet bluff all in. against that type of opponent it´s probably the best play.
that hand shows pretty well, why it sucks so badly to play OOP. it´s hard to maximize value here against villain´s mediocre hands and against his monsters, we will lose our stack.
Yer, a small raise or a jam on the turn achieves basically the same thing => narrows villain's range to a higher ratio of hands that beats us : hands we're ahead of.
We're never 4b NAI on the turn as a bluff, our line looks incredibly strong.
Agree with comment about playing out of position.
I recently filtered my hands by blinds and position and found I was making just over 50% of my total expected chip profit from playing in position at the early levels.
I was making something like 5-6x as much in position as out of position.
I'm curious whether other players experience the same or whether I'm just bad at playing out of position?