HI guy,
Very simple question I'm guessing but just want to doublecheck. Can anyone explain these results to me from ICIMIZER. Quick decription stacks 500/500 level is 10/20. Hero in BB, SB pushes all in with range 22-44 and we calculate what our calling range should be. Now of course there are hands like 86s and JTos in there because they are ahead of villians range, but what about hands like A5s? Which is not ahead of villians range - not even ahead of 22? Is this just because we already have 1bb invested being in the BB and perhaps have the equity to call an open shove, which we would not in fact do in game for an edge this small even though it says here we gain 10chips(0.5bb)? Confused....
When villain jams @ 25.0BB, from the BB you have to call 25-1 = 24BB for your equity share of a 25*2 = 50BB pot.
You need 24 / 50 = 48% equity to be indifferent between calling folding.
Any hand with > 48% equity you have better expectation by calling rather than folding.
A5s has 49.036% equity vs a range of 44-22 so you do better by calling than folding.
Thanks for your reply. Yes I thought that was the case. I really should have done those maths myself. 10 chips seems a substantial edge to me, but in this situation I usually only call hands like JT, 86s that are actually ahead in equity%. Usually when making ICIMIZER calculations I add a minium EV difference where I would be happy to call a shove and 10(0.5bbs) chips would meet that requirement whereas A6s would not. Anyway I guess it is a call vs a reg say as this seems a fairly accuarate representation of many regs OS range at 25bbs... I guess I can't be sure if they are also open shoving 55 which would make our calling range somewhat tighter... an interesting calc would be to see what hands we could start to openshove as a possible adjustment if we saw a reg villian call off this light I guess...
I would be careful about assuming villain's open jamming range is only 44-22.
If we know that for sure, our calling range @ 25BB (hands with at least 48% equity) would be:
AA-33,KQ-KT,QJ-Q9,JT-J8,T9-T7,98-96,87-86,76-75,65,AxKx-Ax5x,Kx9x-Kx5x,Qx8x-Qx5x,Jx7x-Jx5x,Tx6x-Tx5x,9x5x,8x5x,6x4x,5x4x
If our villain knows we are calling a jam with this range, he knows we will be calling a jam about 37% of the time.
He can jam a wide value range and completely own us.
For example, vs our calling range he could jam:
A,KK-66,KQ-K7,QJ-Q9,JT,Kx6x-Kx5x,Qx8x,Jx9x
and be assured >= 50% equity vs your calling range.
Note that if villain expands his open jamming range to 77-22, we need to tighten our calling range (min 48% equity) to:
AA-55,QJ-QT,JT-J9,T9-T8,98,AxKx-AxTx,Ax8x,KxQx-Kx9x,Qx9x-Qx8x,Jx8x-Jx7x,Tx7x,9x7x,8x7x
in which case you would only be calling a jam about 18% of the time.
If he adds in weak Ax: [A5-A2]
to make his range: [44-22,A5-A2]
we need to call quite a different range:
AA-33,AK-A4,Ax3x,JxTx,Tx9x,9x8x,8x7x,7x6x
If you repeat this process of he jams [X] so I call [Y] then he jams [X] to exploit [Y] and so on and so forth you will end up in the nash equilbrium solution to the preflop shove fold game :)
awesome post. Thanks mate. Has led to further playing around...:)
Be warned.
Poker analysis is a proverbial rabbithole.
You might find yourself in Wonderland if you're not careful :P
haha yeah indeed! I think these are just fun excercises though. Honestly most winning regular players are just never making these kind of adjustments i think and it's fairly hard imo to explot someone calling open shoves with 86s, JTos for 25bbs unless you start adding in 55, 66, 77 ect and i think 22-44/55 is a fairly accurate range for regs playing 30-200s though the limp shove has became more popular... anyway even low Ax is just about a flip vs those hands...sure if they started open shoving QTs, QJ then yeah but i just don't see it happening for 25bbs unless we are playing lotte lenya or something i dunno as i've seen him doing some pretty crazy stuff:) it's extremley useful to be aware of these eventuatlies though imo...dont want to go completley down the rabbit hole though and become a crazy donk!
Yer and if your opponent proves to not be a reg with a transparent open jamming range @ 20-25BB deep then you run the risk of running into a hand which destroys your calling range.
Exhibit A: Mr unexpected open jamming range @ 18BB
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$14.69+$0.31
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
BB
Hero
360
SB
sully121555
640
Effective Stacks: 18bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB
sully121555 goes all-in 640, Hero goes all-in 340
Flop (720, 2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn (720, 2 players, 2 all-in)
River (720, 2 players, 2 all-in)
Final Pot: 720
Hero shows a pair of Threes
sully121555 shows a pair of Threes
Hero wins 360
sully121555 wins 640
Ah, but we have to be certain villian is a winning regular to make this kind of call and reliably put him on 22-55.. also i would be reluctant to call less then 20bbs as some regs have the tendancy to shove some low Ax at 17-18bbs even though that is too deep imo and i would think it was definitley a leak. Also at $15 games I probably would be reluctant to make the call too unless I was sure it was a winning player who played reasonable ranges as standard. At slightly higher stakes I think regulars ranges become more reliable/transparent in some situations like these. Though as said some people are playing low pockets in different ways nowadays sometimes like limp shoving. Also the player pool gets smaller and you regonize most of the players in the lobby and know who they are 60s+ so can be fairly certain they would never be open shoving a hand like AQ for 18bbs unless of course it was an adjustment but even then they would have to assume I was calling OS with a wide range to make up for the lost value they would gain from just MRing...
Yer open shoving AQ @ 18BB is pretty lolbad.
If you assumed your opponent was never doing it, it would not affect your expectation much because matches against these guys are so infrequent.
hmm can u use that icmizer and show me what the hand ranges are if villian open shoves 22-55 and AK (50% of the time) AQ (50% of the time) AJ (50% of the time) id like to see how that affects the calling ranges