i dont know much about the opponent except he's quite aggresive, 3bet 50% after 20 hands also raising and betting a lot.
If the J on the river didnt come id fire 3 barrels without thinking cause i dont expect him to have an ace here at all, but with the j, isnt c/c better? he might spew with some random stuff since he is so aggresive.
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$58.74+$1.26
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | Vinbal | 490 | |
| BB | Hero | 510 |
Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB
Vinbal calls 10, Hero raises to 60, Vinbal calls 40
Flop (120, 2 players)
Hero bets 55, Vinbal calls 55
Turn (230, 2 players)
Hero bets 105, Vinbal calls 105
River (440, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in 290, Vinbal folds
Final Pot: 440
Hero wins 730 ( won +220 )
Vinbal lost -220
When you say random stuff, i really dont think theres much random stuff in his range when he calls flop and turn. He either missed a draw or your getting called down by 5 or 6x and just rivered villian, if your going to bet I think you should bet small and give your oppenent a really good price to call. I really doubt villian is going to call a shove on the river with 4th or 5th pair when your line looks so strong. You can even check it to him if hes really aggro and he may turn his hand into a bluff realising it may not be good enough of the time and try to make you fold out a hand slightly better than his like 99s or 10s which he think you cant call a shove with after he calls two streets.
My interpretation of me in this scenario:
I recognise this river bet only too well :) Invariably I ponder my rationale for doing so. I mentioned in another post we can sometimes take a position to avoid an awkward decision and for me, at least, this would be an example of one such instance.
When the jack arrives we know our chances have improved so there is some emotional uplift but then now we suspect we should probably check.. We picture appearing weak, our opponently inevitably betting (no doubt an in-the-moment over-estimation) leading us to feel regretful about folding or calling. So we(I) resort to plan A which was to shove the river and hope for the best, as was the intention if the J weren't to arrive, and in so doing dismiss the uncomfortable check scenario the improvement in our hand induced and hope he folds or gets creative with a call.
Check-folding is probably the right play but psychologically the toughest; check-calling is tempting against an aggressive player, particulraly if we feel he is going to hang on to a draw. However, I do believe it looks an ominous bluff to get through from his perspective: your image is key here. The other option is a milky bet/ block-bet, which would make sense with an Ace to try and get a small pair to call. As such we anticipate folding to a raise; tie ourselves in knots (when our opponent takes the plunge) thinking we've shown weakness , induced a bluff, wind-up calling since we thought, 'oh well we planned to shove in the first place' and call. Well, perhaps not always;)
In short, I think the river gets our mind in a bit of a tangle; well mine anyway.
Spot on analysis Arron.
You're only getting value from a very stubborn 6x or 5x on the river once villain limp calls pre then flat 2 streets vs flop cbet + turn 2barrel.
If villain is capable of limping to trap Ax or slow playing a turned K6, K5 type holdings you can be owning yourself by betting the river.
You mentioned villain has been fairly aggressive, so our going assumption is that his passively played hands are weak show down value type holdings.
As Arron said, he can also have missed draws like 87 which he may have limped pre then preferred to flat to raising out of fear that your raise vs limp range has a lot of Ax in it.
It's pretty close between underbet-calling, jamming and check-calling.
Given villain has 3b a lot more than a pure value range would amount to we suspect villain is quite capable of bluffing.
I think check-calling here is best vs this guy because he's more likely to turn his missed draws into a bluff than to bluff catch his weak show down value holdings.