Hi,
Can you help advise on this hand ?
Thanks.
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$14.69+$0.31
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | PbStar7 | 370 | |
| SB | Hero | 630 |
Effective Stacks: 19bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, PbStar7 calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
PbStar7 checks, Hero bets 40, PbStar7 calls 40
Turn (160, 2 players)
PbStar7 checks, Hero bets 90, PbStar7 calls 90
River (340, 2 players)
PbStar7 checks, Hero checks
Final Pot: 340
PbStar7 shows a pair of Tens
Hero shows
PbStar7 wins 340 ( won +170 )
Hero lost -170
Since you didnt provide any information about opening % of you and the villian its impossible to say.
If its your first game and first 6-8 hands i would say that you traped yourself in a hard spot with the bets you did. since he will most likely call a shove here with marginal hands and from the looks of it you are most likely beaten.
A check is from my point of view with no to little info the best here.
A shove will not represent many chips in total of the pot and you will be called down easily with marginal better hands than yours.
Hi Crunky and all pals,
Pardon me for not detailing villian stats. It is only first 5 hands i have with villian. He min raise 2 out of 3 hands i have with him. And he call my min raise 1 time and 3 bet me 1 time. Nothing conclusive.
Thanks for your explanation.
How would you have played out from the flop ? I would like to see if there is a better way of playing this, perhaps in bet sizes.
Thanks a lot.
Regards
Hi Crunky and all pals,
Pardon me for not detailing villian stats. It is only first 5 hands i have with villian. He min raise 2 out of 3 hands i have with him. And he call my min raise 1 time and 3 bet me 1 time. Nothing conclusive.
Thanks for your explanation.
How would you have played out from the flop ? I would like to see if there is a better way of playing this, perhaps in bet sizes.
Thanks a lot.
Regards
Executive Summary:
The rule of thumb for making this decision at the table is, do I get called by worse hands more than 50% of the time when I bet?
Unless villain's c/c range is most 8x and 3x because he partitions his high cards and draws to his c/f or c/r range, AND villain is a calling station who will call down 3 streets with a weak pair, you won't be ahead of enough of his calling range on the river to bet for value here.
Details:
If we give villain an OOP flatting range @ 19BB of
[A7-A2,KT-K2,QJ-Q4,JT-J5,T9-T7,98-97,87,Qx3x-Qx2x,Jx4x-Jx2x,Tx6x-Tx2x,9x6x-9x5x,8x6x-8x5x,7x6x-7x5x,6x5x,5x4x] = 565 combos
On this flop, villain's OOP flatting range connects with the flop:
6.6732% NOTHING | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
4.1235% NOTHING | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
2.3448% NOTHING | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
47.6712% NOTHING | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
5.4793% NOTHING | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
0.3922% THIRDPAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
5.2850% THIRDPAIR | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
7.0627% SECONDPAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
4.7047% SECONDPAIR | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
11.7437% TOPPAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
2.3522% TOPPAIR | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
0.3902% TOPANDBOTTOM | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
1.7775% TOPTWO | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
Note, a lot of his range (~48%) has an overcard, so depending on whether he c/c one street w A hi & K hi will affect the profitability of your cbet.
We expect he will c/r his Jx and his OESDs.
We expect he will c/c with A hi, K hi, 8x, 3x gutshots.
Which gives him a c/c range of something like:
[A7-A2,KT-K2,QT-Q8,T8-T7,98-97,87,Qx3x,Tx3x,8x6x-8x5x] = 352 combos
He will be continuing vs our cbet 352 / 565 = 62% of the time
Given we need 33% folds to instant profit from a half pot cbet, this is pretty close between cbetting and checking back with our T hi + gutshot.
On the turn Ts, we improve to about 75% equity vs his range.
Villain's flop c/c range on this turn card is:
42.1303% NOTHING | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
7.9355% NOTHING | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
5.3160% NOTHING | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
1.9853% LESSER PAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
4.9312% LESSER PAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
4.0080% LESSER PAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
14.5275% LESSER PAIR | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
7.5965% LESSER PAIR | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
2.3195% LESSER TWO PAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
3.9262% STRAIGHT | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | ALREADY HAVE/BEAT STRAIGHT
5.3240% STRAIGHT | 1+ OVERCARD(S) | NO FLUSH DRAW | ALREADY HAVE/BEAT STRAIGHT
So we definitely want to bet for value.
We bet and he calls.
We expect he will give up with his A hi, K hi, 3x that didn't pick up equity.
And will continue with a range of:
[KT-K8,QT-Q8,T8-T7,98-97,87,Qx3x,Tx3x,8x6x-8x5x] = 152 combos
Against his narrowed continuing range when we bet the turn, our equity reduces to 50.5% but folds out some equity too.
The 4h river is pretty much a blank.
Our equity vs villain's turn continuing range improves to 57.5% because of the draws which missed.
BACK TO YOUR QUESTION: Can we jam river?
The question is, does he call a bet on the river with enough hands that we're ahead of that we're better betting than checking behind?
This is tricky to estimate because villain can lead the river with some of his hands, which partitions his range into:
- lead river
- check-call river
- check-fold river
- check-raise river
I've already made a lot of assumptions about how villain plays to get to this river spot.
I'm not going to add more by assigning different hands to his various ranges => but I would encourage you to as you get more reads as it conditionally affects the range which checks to you on the river.
Let's look at his raw range that he gets to the river with.
[KT-K8,QT-Q8,T8-T7,98-97,87,Qx3x,Tx3x,8x6x-8x5x] = 152 combos
Which of these will call a bet on the river?
It's a bit of a far cry for 8x or 3x to call 3 streets unless you've been very aggressive or villain is a calling station.
So we expect villain will call a bet on the river with [KT,QT-Q9,T8,97,Tx7y] = 74 combos
Against the range that villain calls a bet on the river with, we have 4.5% equity.
=> We don't get called by enough hands on the river that we should be betting the river.
Hi cdon,
Thank you for the very detailed breakdown.
I would like to check with you the following
1) How do you come up with the percentage breakdowns tables ? Is there a software that you are using ?
2) During in-game, how do you make these estimates to come to a decision quick ? Is there any techniques that you can share ?
again your explanation and breakdown is crystal clear. Thanks a lot.
Regards,
1. I spent 6 months in a monastery honing my mental calculations.
2. See above.
Lol :)
1. I used ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Interactive Hand Stats query => it gives a breakdown of players' ranges given the board you input. It's really cool software which you can use on your desktop if you buy the Odds Oracle. Otherwise, you can use it for free on their website, but you'll have to build up the PQL script from first principles which is a bit tricky, and probably has a very steep learning curve if you don't have any preexisting programming skills. Hands down best poker probability / modelling software I've used, especially if you combine bulk PQL queries using the spreadsheet processing tool with some excel skills. Ridonkulous analytical firepower.
2. In game, having spent some time going through the calcs in detail away from the table, you will build intution for these spots. Or you will at least build some reference points in your analytical framework for comparing new spots you encounter to. On the fly, you only have a few seconds to make your decisions and unless you're the Rain Man you're not going to be able to process all the information completely accurately, so you'll need to come up with some mental shortcuts based on the intuition you should be building over time.
For example, if I was playing this hand on the fly my thought process would be:
Preflop:
T7o IP @ 19BB
What is villain's OOP frequencies behaviour wrt: calling? 3b? vs cbets?
- If he has high (>50%) fold to open or calls wide and folds to cbets (>35%) I would min raise
- If he has high 3b (>25%) or high c/r (>35%) I would limp
Flop:
Flop comes J83 r in single raised pot
=> This hits a typical OOP flatting range quite a lot (we expect an OOP flatting range to be comprised of a lot of middling hands)
=> We flopped a T hi + gutshot, we don't expect to have much SDV so we expect we will need to bet to take down the pot but we don't expect villain to fold much
It's pretty close between cbetting and checking back. It's a rainbow board and the 3 is for most of villain's range a blank, which might make this board a marginally profitable cbet.
If villain is competently aggressive, he will be raising a lot of his draws here which you will have to fold against so I would check back.
If villain is giving a bit of a nitfish vibe (eg. he has only been opening 40% of buttons) you can cbet here and give up unimproved if villain continues.
You cbet.
Turn:
Turn improves our hand, but it also hits a lot of villain's flop c/c range.
Villain will be c/c a lot of 8x, gutshots etc which given players preflop OOP flatting range will favour connectedness, this T improves villain's range too.
We can bet to get value from 8x but if villain raises his range will probably be narrowed to 2pair +.
Again, close spot between betting for value and checking back.
River:
River blanks. The 4 doesn't hit either of us.
At this stage, our line best represents Jx +
If villain always leads the river with his strong hands (2pair +), we can conditionally reweight his checking range as weak SDV vs Jx or missed draws.
If villain also leads the river with his missed draws, his checking range on the river is entirely weak showdown value hands.
We could consider betting small to target 8x.
But most players won't c/c 3 streets with a weak pair so we're not getting much value by betting.
Additionally, we're not sure if villain checks all his weak SDV hands to us, he could partition them into a river c/r range.
In which case, we would be bet folding this spot.
You can use PPT Odds Oracle Interactive Hand Stats or Flopzilla to analyse villain's ranges on various board textures.
But you need to get good at hand reading + reading your own hand to be able to make these decisions quickly at the table.
It's basically an exercise of logical deduction + heuristic intuition built up from both work away from the tables & experience playing.
Will Tipton's book really helped me hone my analytical framework for thinking about the game. @ ~ $25-$35 it's awesome value if you give it the required effort (several readings + calculations, modelling etc).
Take the advice for what it's worth: I've only been playing poker for about 18months and have only had some success @ low stakes.