Hi..
Think my bet sizing is the wrong side of half pot.
Q: Id like to calculate what the flush draw chances % is for villain but not sure how to go about it ?
( I found some charts for math and probabilities and says 'Two suited cards flop a four flush 10.9% or 9-1 ) ( But I also have one of the diamonds )
Think betting over 1/2 pot on the flop is a mistake because i'm scared of FD's coming without the correct math/reasoning to back up my bet size.
Playing quite cautiously at the moment and trying to learn where my errors are.. but think im being a nit here ?
Villain is limping 88% over 16 hands and folding to cbets 67%
Thanks for any advice.
TC.
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$1.44+$0.06
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | Hero | 560 | |
| BB | TATA15051989 | 440 |
Effective Stacks: 22bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, TATA15051989 calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
TATA15051989 checks, Hero bets 50, TATA15051989 folds
Final Pot: 80
Hero wins 130 ( won +40 )
TATA15051989 lost -40
an important question to ask oneself is, how many hands can possibly call a bet and is that range sensitive to the size of the bet. on that very board you´ll get called by Ax that didn´t 3bet, Tx, 6x, flushdraws, gutshots with overs to the T (KJ, QJ, KQ) and possibly also bare gutshots like 97. of these hands only the lower gutshots and maybe weak 6x should show sensitivity towards bet sizing. you´ll hardly get floated on that board with Khigh (except villain also has a gutshot) and because of the many draws out there, you´ll hardly ever get played back on as a bluff. there actually are quite some hands villain can call your bet with and most hands in the calling range should not care that much if you bet 40 or 50.
personally though, i only bet more than half pot on the flop in limped pots, because that´s the only way of growing the pot. on very dry flops, like KK3, i´d only bet 40% pot. if i 3bet OOP, my cbets are also usually less than half pot, because the pot already is big and people tend to play very straightforwardly in big pots. the most important thing is, to keep your sizings consistant with board texture and not make them depend on if you have value or not.
Thanks for the clear answer. Forces me to think through the hand and all ranges, and I think your right with regards to those hands that don't care if it's 40 or 50.
Yes I'm working on keeping bet sizing consistent with board texture, but find myself often betting large to defend and small to induce, which is a very transparent tell I think.
Thanks again.
TC.
Go forth and CRUSH !