How would you play this hand? I really have no idea that should I jam it OTT like I do or just call the turn bet, I don't think that folding is an option coz I have so much equity with my draws vs his range.
I have played 75 hands vs villain, Here's an image of his CoffeeHUD stats:
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players • PokerStars
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | Hero | 540 | |
| SB | Villain | 460 |
Effective Stacks: 23bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB
Villain raises to 40, Hero calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets 35, Hero calls 35
Turn (150, 2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets 105, Hero goes all-in 465
what kind of betsizing info do you have on villain?
he undercbets the flop and overcbets the turn ...
seemingly it's the first time he cbets the turn against you, so he must have some kind of a made hand...
this might reduce the FE you have but you should still have some...
you'll need around 42.5% total equity to 'justify' the shove
I guess you'll have around 41~42% equity against his range without any doubt and that you have a few % FE also, thus a push is ok and is +ev ...
you are only 'really screwed' if he has a 79 combo, but then you can still rely on your flushdraw...
a higher flushdraw is also a possibility, but looking at his stats, i think he would play the draws passively on the turn (no cbets yet on any turn)
is it the best??
therefor you need to compare with a call and evaluate river ...
you'll be down to 350 chips ... if you don't hit, you need to fold...
350 Vs 650 means you are a underdog for the match and you'll need to take some risks that might be worse then the 'shoving risk' here...
villain is very passive in the BB so you could accumulate chips there to get back in the match if you keep the pressure on him, because his stats show that he is not really fighting back ...
anyhow... for me it's a push
How did you calculate that I need 42.5% equity to justify my shove? I came up with that I need 41.8% equity to shove if I have no fold equity. I calculated it this way: pot is 150 villain has 385 behind OTT so if he shoves (same result as he bets and I shove) he will shove for 385 the pot is then 535 and I need to call 385 to win it, so I calculated 385/(385+535) = 0.418 = 41.8% ----- Did I make a mistake or was your math flawed? Thx :)
your calculation will be more accurate, i just quickly calculated it out the top of my head as i would at the tables, without calculator or anything ;)
if you are pushing OTT, you are giving up all of your edge against this weak and passive opponent. i would never knowingly give such a bad opponent a chance to be a 60/40 favourite against me. pushing the turn imo is the worst option against that type of opponent. villain´s AFq on the Turn is zero up to that hand. you are basically gambling here and hoping that your push is mathematically correct (which most of the time it is not, because he will not all of a sudden open up his barreling range here and include complete air. he doesn´t even seem to be the kind of player that barrels with a good draw). the chance you are a 30% dog and you don´t have any FE, is not that slim against that opponent. i suppose that kind of opponent most of the time has at least two pair here. against that range, you don´t even have 30%. even if you include turned top pairs (like A8, K8, etc.) into his range, you only have about 33%. pushing the turn is really not a good idea against that opponent.
Villain has 0% turn cbet before this hand but it's only 0/1 so it's not like villain has had tens of barreling opportunities, instead he has had one spot to cbet the turn and he hasn't. Would you still play it the same way?
i wouldn´t be in your situation, because i wouldn´t check call the flop.
as played though i still wouldn´t jam the turn. his overall AFq is just 26, which is really low, so i wouldn´t expect him to be too much out of line on that board. as played i´d say:
call > fold > jam.
if you want to attack the board, do it on the flop. a gutshot with 2 overs is good enough to do so, but to simply check call the flop, your hand is not good enough.
i think the flop is a good one to donk. if you check call and don´t hit, you´ll get into a lot of awkward spots OTT, plus there is a big enough chance for villain to check back the flop. giving a passive opponent a free card is really bad. i´d lead the flop and turn and if i don´t hit, shut down on the river (well, maybe barrel off depending on the river card)
Villain has opened about 70% and cbet about 60% of flops.
He has plenty of air in his open + cbet range on this board which will fold to a c/r jam.
You have do not have much show down value (J hi) with pretty good equity in the form of a gutshot + 2 overs + BD FD.
I would just c/r jam the flop without reads that his flop underbets are for value.
check raising is also a very good option. i was thinking about that also. but since that flop is quite a good one to check back with overs, i really don´t want to give him a free card.
I don't think we mind him checking back with overs.
If he partitions his checking back range to his weak shown value we can quite profitably 2barrel turn + river vs his checking back range assuming he has a fold button the river.
It is noteworthy though if he checks back his weak show down value on this flop it will conditionally:
- decrease his cbet-fold range
- relative to his cbet-call range
Which decreases your fold equity and the profitability of the suggested c/r jam line.
If you decide to donk instead, it may take 2barrels to fold out the marginal holdings in his flat vs donk range.
You're in a bit of a tough spot if he raises your donk without reads. It will be very player dependent whether you should fold, flat or reship it.
i don´t really see that as a problem. i have good equity and i barrel him off of a lot of hands on that board. i don´t mind firing 3 barrels, depending on the run out, plus there is a substantial chance, i´ll end up with the best hand OTR.
i don´t see a big problem here either. against a jam, i´ll fold. if he raises NAI, we have a tough decision, that´s right. but against such a passive player i suspect his raises to be heavily weighted towards value (which he won´t have all that often). so i think calling is preferable here, since we may have problems getting the right odds if we jam.
Donking and having to fire another barrel is not a problem at all. And having our donk raised NAI is probably marginal wrt to the effect on our expectation.
I was just putting some thoughts around comparing donking to c/r options.
More specifically, which is best depends on how villain plays his various holdings vs the two lines:
- strong made hands (assumed never folding)
- weak made hands, would like to keep pot small and not prepared to stack off with (including A hi, K hi)
- draws
- air, with no show down value
If we check to him, what does he do with each of these parts of his range ? What does he do vs a c/r jam?
If we donk into him, what does he do with each of these parts of his range ?
Ideally we need to estimate how much of his raw flop range fits into each of these subranges.
And which line maximises our expectation against how he plays his various holdings.
I prefer to c/r jam here because given our expected (S/P,E,FE) it will be +EV and it is how I would play top pair 6x in this spot. It also locks in our equity while it's still high, before it is devalued on future streets which I think makes it more profitable than a NAI option.
I think donks get less credit and have less fold equity.
But they might have a better risk / reward profile vs these passive players ?
I don't have a lot of experience / understanding of donking at this stack depth in single raised pots.
Can someone explain why it would be better than the (I think standard?) c/r jam here ?
the way i see it, donking is preferrable to check raising, if there is a reasonable probability that villain will check back the flop (which, tbh, is more important for value hands). since villain cbets only 57%, i´d say that flop is checking back material for a passive player who is looking for reasons not to bet. i think that c/r jamming is the best option if the probability of villain cbetting were a little higher.
we have a good draw, but we are OOP, which devalues our draw, because villain can check back, which decreases our equity significantly, if we don´t hit OTT. we need to take control of the betting. i am also not really afraid of getting called too light, because his stats don´t really exhibit stationy behaviour. and because of his utter passivity, i am even less worried i am getting raised light.
check raising has higher fold equity (if we only consider one street), but by leading every street, we can credibly rep the nuts throughout the whole hand and barrel villain off of a lot of his weak value, which he might consider calling a jam OTF with. A5, or A6, which is a 60/40 favourite OTF, will call a jam, but has a really hard time calling 3 leads. just like every overpair will call a jam any time, but if the board runs out 3h5c6s8s2c, a pair of TT has a very hard time calling a river shove. i think by leading we increase our chances of barreling villain off of hands that beat us, if we don´t hit.