$3.50 Hyper, 2nd hand vs villain after he open folded 1st button, no previous info on him. Would you call or fold on the river with the lowest flush possible?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$3.40+$0.10
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | derol25 | 490 | |
| SB | Hero | 510 |
Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, derol25 calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
derol25 checks, Hero bets 40, derol25 calls 40
Turn (160, 2 players)
derol25 checks, Hero checks
River (160, 2 players)
derol25 bets 160,
Hero ???
fold. it´s hard to imagine, you´re good 33% of the time.
My line of thinking here was that when i check the turn, I look weak or like I don't have a heart, they're not going to put me on a flush, or at least a decent flush. So if i look weak, why bet the pot? Why not bet a bit less to get me to call. This is usually going to be either the queen of hearts or air imo, the queen of hearts may fire pot as they are desperate for value with the nuts, especially after getting no value on the turn... With jack of hearts or worse players won't usually bet the full pot here...at this level any way. I think they can show up without a heart 33% of the time, just because flat, check, fire out pot looks a bit suspicious in this spot.
Also lots of people will be raising my continuation bet with Qh on the flop, with all this in mind as well as how stupidly random people can be at this level (ie - betting a pair or 2 pair here), i feel as though there is reason to suspect I'm good more than 33% of the time.
Thoughts?
i think you don´t just look weak, you are weak in this spot. you have a bluffcatcher here. if your reasoning is to induce a bluff, you´d have to call, otherwise checking the turn doesn´t make sense. if you are afraid of big bets OTR, it makes more sense to bet the turn and check back the river.
then i think you are making a mistake by excluding value hands that beat you and aren´t the nuts from his range. it´s very much conceivable for him to have a hand like KxTh. your check OTT looks weak, so villain will exclude strong flushes from your range, which is correct, because checking back the nuts or second nuts OTT is usually a mistake that will lose you value from worse flushes. he can very easily bet the third nuts for value against worse flushes, sets, straights, two pair. i´d probably also bet the 8h for value in this spot. 7h becomes pretty borderline i think.
then it´s also quite possible villain flopped a flush and slowplayed and is now trying to make up for lost value.
he must have sth to call your flopbet with. it´s extremely rare to reverse float in such a situation with air. if he has worse value, like a K, it´s pretty unlikely he´ll bet pot OTR, which essentially turns his hand into a bluff. for that to make sense, he must knowingly do so to get you off an Ace or better King. these are against most opponents the only hands, he will fold out. it´s highly unlikely villain would do that. he could turn a hand like 75 into a bluff though, which really makes sense. other than that pretty much the only hands i see bluffing here are a missed wheel draw or broadway draw without hearts.
final thought: someone who open folds the first hand readless in a 3.50$ game is more likely to be a passive player who doesn´t bluff a 4flush-board all that often.
and then again villain could be completely braindead, and bluff with a hand that doesn´t make sense at all.
would you mind sharing the result? did you call? what did villain show down?
cheers
s.
Yeah all good points, I may be bias from the result which is why I didn't post it in the first place.
Whilst I agree villian can rule out a high flush from my range (if he's even thinking about what I might have), and value bet the 10 of hearts, maybe even the 8 of hearts on this river, i just didn't feel that it's as likely for them to bet 'pot' in this situation, especially with how weak I look. Personally I think it's going to be more common at these levels to bet between 80 and 120 with 8h & 10h. From my own observations, fish usually bet pot in these kind of spots with the nuts / a very strong hand, or to get you to fold. At these levels i like to assume everyone is a fish until they prove otherwise, not opening the first button supported this theory. So naturally I narrowed his 'likely' range down to Qh, maybe Jh, along with a pair of 5's that he is now bluffing, straight draw, and the chance he may over value 2 pair or a set and decide I don't have a flush and fire out (which i see all the time). I figured it's likely enough that 33% of the time he doesn't have Qh or Jh, so I called.
As it turns out you were right saying villain could be completely brain dead and bluff with a hand that makes no sense at all (which i think we have to take into account into ppls ranges at this level).....results below...maybe he was value betting the 6 ;)
River (160, 2 players)
derol25 bets 160, Hero calls 160
Final Pot: 480
derol25 shows a pair of Sixes
Hero shows a flush, Ace high
Hero wins 480 ( won +240 )
derol25 lost -240
well... it´d be very interesting to hear what villain was thinking when betting. better yet: what he was thinking when calling the flop. he should either fold or raise. a call is completely out of the question.