Hi guys,
I am trying to understand the Net expected chips won curve,if I understand correctly it's the line that tells you if for example you are all in with AK against A2 and lose,that Net exp will be increasing and the green one "chips won" will decrease.Today I was all in on the flop with a flush made against an opponent with a smaller flush,I won the pot and after checkingmy curves on pokertracker, the yellow net expected chips was not going up..how possible? and if it is only when we are in all in situation what about for example if we have a made set on the flop OOP,we bet and opponent calls (float with nothing) on the river he has a straight draw,we bet and he calls again,he hits his straight on the river and push..we correctly call and lose,does that mean our EV line net expected will deep down? because opponent didn't play it correctly by chasing..we did all good but lose..how reliable is that statistic?where can we check if we played the hand good but lost the all in river situation?
Your indications would be help me a lot :-)
thx in advance
What the EV line does show you is how many chips you would had deserved to receive.
Example:
1) You go ALL IN and your opponent calls. The pot is 1000 chips and your EV versus his (expected value) hand is 80%. This means that you are entitled to 800 chips out of the pot. But you either win all of them and run 200 chips "above" EV or you lose all of them and run 800 chips "below" EV.
If you go all in with a higher flush versus a lower flush on the flop,it is possible (but not mandatory) that you have an EV of 100%. If that is the case, you will win 100% of the chips every time and will not be below or above EV.
If you are the lower flush and you maybe have 5% EV on the flop to make a straight flush and you do, you run 95% above EV or 5% below EV.
You should not care about your EV line before you have a good sample size (maybe10'000 games).
Hi.
Thx for replying Barrin
So that line is only in all in situation...where or how can I see stats when we do the right play like my example above when we are ahead untill the river when opponent hits is card and beat us..we know we did the right play but we will have a negative EV...I'd like to be able to see a line but for the whole hands..not only the all in situation..is it possible?
Thx :-)
It is not possible. That is, because you are up against a single hand, but are playing against a range of hands. Furthermore, sometimes the correct play is to make him fold the hand.
What you wanna do is not only impossible, it is the wrong way to analyze your play. Unless you are looking for a staking or are willing to buy stakings, the EV line should never matter to you. You will have your real winnings and loses. But those are just the final result out of your games.
If you wanna analyze your play, you need to look at your hands in the session aftermath. In order to make a session aftermath you need to know, what your opponents range are and how you can maximize your expectation. Just posting a hand in a forum to let it be evaluated by other players, that have not been involved in the hand is not gonna do any good for you. It only will cost you time.
Hi.
I will try not to focus too much on that Ev line but here after a disastrous session,lost 15 buy ins.. I had games were first and I 3 bet shove A9 and villain call with 89 and win, next game first hand AJ I 3 bet shove and opponent call with QJ and wins...I check my ev line (yellow) and that line was not going up..how possible?
"Today I was all in on the flop with a flush made against an opponent with a smaller flush,I won the pot and after checkingmy curves on pokertracker, the yellow net expected chips was not going up..how possible?" It should've go up along with your green line with the same amount. Maybe just some pt refresh problem.
If you are playing hypers, expect to lose 15 BI a day (or an hour :D ), even with the most perfect play, and even in EV (the later is a little rare if you are a consistent winner, but possible, I know :) )
Hellooo,
To be honnest I don't understand this graph..before a game today my EV net expected line (yellow) was at -1817 chips..I start the match, win 100 chips without showdown and then get 88 against KQ all in preflop and lose..I stll have 100 chips and get 22 against K7 and lose again..in those both situations it was a 55%-45% so why after the game,I go and check my graph and it shows -2039 chips??
Its ok not to focus too much on that EV line but I would understand exactly what it is!! because if its only the chips expected in an all in situation,its not true..I should have more than -1817 chips after the game.
Thx
Because, if you both have 100 chips left, this means that the pot will be 200 chips and 55% from 200 chips are 110 chips, which you should have received but instead you received 0, so you are running 110 chips below chip ev in both situations, which totals in a loss of 2*110 chips = 220 chips (negative) which are added to your negative 1837...
(-220) + (-1837) = -2057
Hi.
wow I didn't know it was working that way..in fact I thought if for example I was All in first hand with 88 against K9 (55/45)..pot is 1000 and I lose..my green line chips won would drop to -500 and my yellow EV expected line would be at + 550