Hi people, here is pretty weird spot
Villain: BB VPIP:30, 3bet:0, FtCbet:40, c/r:33 He looked like passive player post flop, so Tx its possible.
So, the question is if turn is good for double barrel. If would there come non diamond J+, I would definitely bet.
What can he call flop with? Ax he would probably 3bet PF, a dont see there many 3x,5x hands due to his tighter BB VPIP, so thats why Im not sure what to do on turn.
If you bet again, what sizing will you choose?
Thank you very much :)
As you said he is super tight, that means he can't have 5x or 3x unless it's something like A5 or A3.
You said he can't have Ax on his range but he is super tight and 0% of 3bet, so Im not surprise to see A high calling the flop because it's such a dry board.
But yeah, I agree most of his range is Tx so I would give up.
Btw, I would have made the Cbet slightly bigger, something like 70 and you just clarify the hand.
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Thank you, I gave up turn.
i would double barrel for sure
villain check raises flop 33% tha'ts approx how often a person will hit the flop therefore it is reasonable to deduce that villain check raises when he hits also his fold to cbet is 40% this means his calling range is 27% and i expect mostly over cards and draws
therefore i expect mostly over cards here or the flush draw, and this is a great barreling card being under the top pair, unless your stats say once he calls flop he always call turn i want to look for spots villain calls then folds on later streets too much, as an exploit
my turn barrel would be 105-125 chips
i would also barrel river if called on the turn unless a non K over card hits or flush completes unless u have stats that say once he calls turn he almost always call river. because any J Q or A (AGT covered why the ace is in his range because he has never 3bet) is what i would expect in a tight villains hand, that i expected to check raise flop when he hit. i just see this villain always on the draw or overcards when he calls this flop, if he had the ten i expect him to check raise with the flush draw on flop there for sure, so i don't think he can have the ten
Hi there tightfish
How many hands are the HUD statistics based on?
against a frequent 3bettor K4o does quite well open shoving for just under 12 BB. but since villain hasn´t 3bet so far and is very passive, your raise is actually fine. min raising should make you more chips.
i would give up the turn. being so shallow i don´t want to go deep in a hand, when i know i can beat villain otherwise. besides: your K high might still win.
against passive fish you never really know what they are calling with. i mean, he even could be just flatting with AA. give up the turn, wait for a better spot.
cheers
s.