Hi all.
Here is a hand I played today, and I am not sure the decision was good:
Villain limps everything PF and is extremely agressive post flop , cbets and donks all flops since the beginning. I called a few times with overcards but it turned out he really had hit the flop each time, so I credit him with quite some luck with the flops...;)
Blinds 15/30
My stack : 320
Villain stack : 680
I get JdTd in SB, I minraise.
Villain calls as usual
Flop 8d5d4h
Villain shoves.
With two overcards and a flush draw, should I call ?
I am pretty sure he hit the flop again.
thanks for your help
Cheers
I would definitely call:
You are getting excellent odds, 260 into a pot of 380 so you only need 40% equity to call.
Against a hand as good as 87 you are ahead (slightly).
Even against 67 or 85 you are about 35% to win, and it will be rare that villain has a hand this good.
It is also possible villain has something like 36 or J9 that you are crushing (not that likely, but totally possible).
Under those conditions, <11bb deep, how can you even consider folding two overcards with flushdraw and backdoor straightdraw?
If you do not wanna play him postflop, just shove it preflop - but what do you need to hit versus him? Royalflush?
Hi.
Well, it sounds obvious indeed "after the action".
But in the action, when you have lost 4 games in a row facing this kind of "client" and you did not hit your flush or straight a single time, you start to wonder if it would not be better to wait for a made hand and/or to be the attacker to risk it all as the guy obviously hit the board and you are behind already.
Final word to this one is that I of course called the shove and for the 5th time in a row I did not hit anything. Villain had top pair.
I don't mean to ask obvious questions nor to whine about another lost and with a draw, and I think I somehow figured out that call was the appropriate reaction, but still, besides the mathematics, and speaking about adaptation to the opponent, when facing such a lucky guy, isn't it some kind of adaptation to consider it safer to engage your stack being the attacker instead of calling a shove with a non made hand ? This guy always attacked with a legitimate hand for what I had seen, so I knew the guy shoved with top or medium pair at least, so I am wondering if I could have adapted to this opponent by folding this hand and attacking myself on the next hands...instead of defending with nothing.
Is this a wrong way of seing things ?
Thanks
PokerPuker
HU Hyper Tilter
E(call) > E(fold)
E(call) > E(fold)
E(call) > E(fold)
E(call) > E(fold)
See above.
Hi CDon,
Not sure I understood your point here. did you mean that : E(call) > E(fold) ?
PokerPuker
HU Hyper Tilter
Hi there PierreLo
I'm going to go against the grain slightly here. I think if we were even 15 bbs deep, and opponent is shoving every flop, we will definitely get a better spot in the near future. In that case, folding such a draw, and waiting for a better hand, would be a better solution.
However, we are only 11 bbs deep. In that case "Ev(call) > Ev(fold)" - I agree.
An important point however: if villain is shoving every flop, I think it would be significantly better to limp in. The main advantage of raising your button is that the pot is inflated where you have the advantage of position. In this case however, the pot is already being inflated every hand postflop. So, limping in would be significnatly better.
If you had limped in this hand, the pot odds being offered would be less, and folding would not be incorrect. You would then be able to lay down, and very likely catch villain out in subsequent hands.
Hope this helps
S = 320/30 = 10.7
In single raised pot we see flop pot of 4BB with (S-2) behind.
When villain jams we have to call (S-2) for our equity share of a pot worth 2S.
So we need e> (10.7-2) / (2*10.7) ~40.7%
If we were in a limped pot (which I tend to agree this particular hand would be better to limp or open jam) then we see a flop if villain checks behind of 2BB with (S-1) behind.
When villain jams we have to call (S-1) for our equity share of a pot worth 2S.
So we need e > (10.7-1) / (2*10.7) ~ 45.3%
The important question is, how much equity do I have vs his jamming range?
Note that even in a fairly extreme case, where villain only ever jams 8x here, we are flipping.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=8d5d4h&g=he&h1=JdTd&h2=8...
49.7 > 40.7 => Snap call
And the limped pot case it is still a snap call (49.7 > 45.3)
As you add in some preflop slow plays to his range our equity decreases a bit. As you add in some spew or semibluffed draws to his range our equity increases a bit.
Regardless, it's a pretty big mistake to fold vs the range villain is likely to take this line with from what we know.
In fact, in a single raised pot, how deep would we need to be to fold if villain's range is entirely comprised of 8x hands against which we have ~49.7% equity?
0.497 = (S-2) / (2S)
S = 333.3 BB
We would need to be > 333.3 BB deep to be better folding than calling here if villain's jamming range is entirely comprised of 8x holdings.
My previous post was trying to make the point that you're worrying about a lot of stuff that doesn't matter.
The fact you need to accept which you seem to be struggling with is:
Calling here is better than folding, even though you will lose about half the time when you call.
All your calculations are correct. However, against an opponent shoving every flop, waiting for a better spot would be a better strategy if we were slightly deeper. We are likely to pick up a hand with much more equity against villain's range in the near future, and get the money in a much bigger favourite.
Passing up slightly +EV spots can be a good strategy where better spots are likely to come up in the near future. This is especially likely where villain is shoving every flop.
FD + 2 overs is that better spot imo.
Let’s just cut to the point: op does have mindset issues.
Hi.
Barrin,
I am not native english so I am not sure what you mean by that. It does not sound nice but again, maybe I misinterpret it.
Do you want to clarify for me ?
Thanks
PokerPuker
HU Hyper Tilter
Neither am I.
I said that you have problems with your way of thinking about situations and that you have not the right mind process. He is a lucky guy - is not a valid argument for a decision.
Hi.
dude, this is a 1000% CALL
reasons:
1. Flush draw
2. 2 Overcards
3. Backdoor straight draw
4. by your description, villain is pushing u around (wider range)
1+2+3+4 = WTF U WAITING TO CALL ?
you ALSO hit the flop. pretty damn hard actually. you are ahead of his range here.