Hi all,
2nd hand of the match vs an unknown, so I have no reads.
Pre, Flop and Turn are standard I guess with this monster draw, but I am not sure if I should throw my stack in on the river or give up and hope my K high might accidently be good. Your thoughts please?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players • PokerStars
$14.69+$0.31
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight.com
| BB | Villain | 520 | |
| SB | hero | 480 | |
Effective Stacks: 24bb
Blinds 10/20
- Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is SB
hero raises to 40, Villain calls 20
- Flop (80, 2 players)
Villain checks, hero bets 60, Villain calls 60
- Turn (200, 2 players)
Villain checks, hero bets 100, Villain calls 100
- River (400, 2 players)
Villain checks
Hero???
- Final Pot: 400
Shove. Your K high isn't enough. Villain probably doesn't have J, it's a T or some kind of draw most of the time. With a monster draw like this, I play bet, bet, shove almost every time.You have FD, OESD, two overcard, so you have a lot of equity. With the FE of the 3barrel it's deadly. :)
Checking the river seems best to me.
You block a lot of his air (diamonds, missed oesd) and also, you beat all of that air. Bluff needs to work about 50% (380/400+380). I seriously doubt you're getting that many folds vs most players (whether you block the air or not).
In this case betting 60 on the flop seems good for max value vs. 10x and Jx as you don't have to worry about 3barrel bluffing too much when you have ~19 outs ~ 76% equity.
But here you get unlucky and face the river with just K high. You only have 280 chips left and the pot is 400, so our bluff has to work 280/680 = 42% of times, I think that's were hokiegreg made a little mistake.
Actually, 42% fold equity is necessary for 52o when compared to checking ( = losing) as it has zero showdown value, but not for KQs.
To me it seems quite hard to make villain fold 42% of his "better than K high" range. I mean, we need to fold out 42% of hands that beat us to make it better than checking back.
I created a possible readless range that he can check the river with (note, that i have excluded most but not all twopair and straight combos as villain is likely to take a different line on turn or river. Also some possible hands like KQs or QJs are not in that range as those type of hands sometimes get 3bet preflop. Sometimes PPs like 88 or AA get flatted.):
AA, A5s, 88, K10, KJ, Q8s, Q10o, J5, J6, J8, J9, 106, 108, 109, 97, 87 for a total of 15,9% of all hands.
If we shove we can assume that on average those hands are going to fold: A5s, 88, 97, 98, 87,106, Q8s and maybe 108. So he folds with 5,9%/15,9% = 37%.
And even if you include one more Ax that beats you and one that folds, one more gutshot and one more FD that are played this way, you are still not folding out more than 42% of hands that BEAT YOU.
Therefore checking back / losing most of the time seems a bit better than getting it in.