Hello guys,
I am into a big downswing at 3.50$ HU hyper turbo on PS, just lost around 30-35 buy-ins this month but my EV expected line is always increasing, that's my cnet line who drops in the abyss :-( does that mean I m playing good but being unlucky or do I need to move down?
thx and best,
L
If you can reload or still have enough of a bankroll to keep playing I would avoid moving down because the rake at 1.50 level is significantly higher and I would imagine the player pool would be of similar calibre.
Thx for the reply, if I check PT4 I should have win 85$ this month after 600 games and instead I lost 15$.
I had 494$ BR 5 days ago and I am now at 400$!! so its a big loss for the 3.5...how is it possible to be so for away from the expected net won? I mean between +85 and instead being at -15 is a difference of 100$ on 600 games..for me it's pretty big but maybe I am wrong, is it a standard downswing?variance? I know everybody will say it's not funny to play when you lose money but here,every game the same losing when I am ahead..again and again..and after when shallow facing a monster and lose..again and again...boring!
Yer pretty standard man.
Hypers are games with small edges (2-3% ROI for winning players), so large swings of 20-40 buyins are not uncommon.
On the brightside, you're not playing 1k games and stuck for 30k :P
Variance in poker is pretty sick. Few months ago I read 'small stakes no-limit hold'em'. It bringts out a nice example during the BRM chapter.
Seo Awesome (nice name, eh?) earns 12$/100 hands in 1-2$ NL Hold'em, over a million hands. The standard deviation is $200 / 100 hands. Those numbers are realistic (all tough the winrate is a bit high, but that does not matter - yet).
If Seo Awesome plays another one million hands, giving the excamt same conditions in the game, with a 99% confidence his winnings will be between $70'000 and $170'000. That is a difference of $100'000 by chance alone.
Broken down on a month (80'000) hands, he shall make between -$5'000 and +$25'000
There are also such calculations for husng I believe. Truth said; you dunno if your winrate is positive after 600 games.
Hi.
In fact the most difficult thing with poker is variance because you can never really know if you are doing things right or not..I mean when you don't play 5000 games a month :-)
with the small amount of games its not always easy for us to know if we play well when we win or if it's variance ..same when we lose...variance or bad play or both lol.
really not a game easy to master!
thx and GL guys
Lud