Tough spot against Martin Finger
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players • PokerStars
$988.80+$11.20
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight.com
| SB |
"0PIGGYBANK" |
500 |
|
|
| BB |
hero |
500 |
|
|
Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 10/20
- Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB
"0PIGGYBANK" raises to 40, hero calls 20
hero checks, "0PIGGYBANK" bets 40, hero calls 40
- Turn (160, 2 players)
hero checks, "0PIGGYBANK" bets 80, hero calls 80
- River (320, 2 players)
hero checks, "0PIGGYBANK" goes all-in 340,
hero folds
- "0PIGGYBANK" wins 660 ( won +160 )
- hero lost -160
He tends to do crazy things at times, knowing that, can we call river? What is the mathematical approach?
Thank you!
No offense, but what are you doing in that level??? I think that you cannot take a serious answer from low and medium stakes players, which are the majority here. How can someone answer your question if he has never played this level?
I think he has a ton of value there besides his missed draws
It depends lot on villains MR range.
If I played this hand vs reg with wide MR range on 15s, I would definitely call all 3 streets, just because he know that I have very few Ax in my range.
When playing at this high a level vs a strong player, on the river we are likely looking to try to be pretty balanced. We want to think about what range we start out on this river, how often we should be calling his bet, and therefore what hands from our starting range are the best to call with.
The first question as to how often we should be calling his bet depends on two factors. If his range is very strong there he may be able to bluff all of bluffs but still make bluff catching bad because of how rarely he gets to the river with bluffs and how often he has value. So if his range is very strong, we likely want to avoid bluff catching entirely because there's nothing we can do about him bluffing sometimes.
If his range isn't that strong then we want to think about how much we should bluff catch in order to make his bluffs indifferent. This is easy to calculate (if you're more curious how to calculate this check out the Mathematics of Poker or Will Tipton's Expert No Limit Hold'em).
Let's let the size of our calling range be C then:
C = 1 - B/(B+P)
where B is the size of the bet, and P is the size of the pot. In this case we have:
C = 1 - 340/(340+320) = 1 - .5151 = .4844
So this tells us we should be calling with around 48% of our starting range to make him indifferent between bluffing and checking, which was our goal.
So at this point to get the answer you just need to know your starting range, try to rank the hands in it according to how well they bluff catch, and see if your specific hand--QcJs--is in the top 48% according to this ranking. When I took this approach I found it to be a call, but things will depend a ton on your preflop, flop, and turn ranges as well as some subtle card removal stuff.
Call
I expect he will:
- open preflop wide (80-100% @ this depth)
- cbet 100% of his preflop range when checked to
- 2barrel for value with his Ax and some worse Jx for value vs our passively played FDs, stubborn 4x & gutshot type hands which have SDV in the form of Kx
- 2barrel as a bluff with all his flopped FDs, turned FDs, NSDV holdings (because he perceives this board to be more profitable to 3barrel bluff than give up on turn)
He gets to the river with a very wide range against what I expect he will think is a fairly capped range.
The board pairing on the river likely caps his value holdings to mostly Ax because he will check back 9x a non-zero amount on the turn.
As such, the river becomes a leveling game: We're ahead of his range at the start of the river, but if he contracts his bluffing range because he thinks we will call every time with our bluff catchers then he actually inflects into an imbalanced value range.
We have essentially the top of our range here given the action & run out. I would want to have seen him give up with bluffs in similar spots to consider folding here. Otherwise, I'm inclined to think he would 3barrel bluff by default rather than bet turn and give up on river with his bluffs. And folding the top of your range vs good players is not something you should make a habit of.
Thanks for your answers Coffee and Cdon. So is it true to think that he does not have an ace often enough for us to fold? Does he not put us on any Ax? Cause he knows we call with any Ax given the board pairs.
Thanks.
If you don't see this spot as a levelling game and he has worked that out he's probably jamming here with a very imbalanced value range.
His range at the start of the river has a ton of other stuff diluting his Ax holdings.
Given you flatted preflop your perceived range doesn't have a lot of Ax in it. How do you play your Ax holdings preflop vs a guy who is (presumably) opening wide?
His decision to bluff will be driven by the extent to which he expects you to fold out:
- Jx & 4x
- busted draws in your c/c c/c range conditional on his perception of your preflop 3b, flop c/r & turn c/r ranges (for example does he expect you will c/r jam FDs?)
Therefore if he thinks that you will be calling a lot when he jams here, he will contract his bluffing range from equilbrium to adjust and exploit you.
I think most people would call Jx here so if he thinks you think that too, then he can start to give you credit for finding a fold and it subsequently becomes a good spot to bluff.
I woulda call, he is very capable of bluffing out the hole stack here, Im pretty much 100% agree with Cdon analysis.
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Cdon, very interesting analysis. Could you touch more on why his value range becomes very imbalanced on the river?
Your range at the start of the river to have played this way from his perspective is:
[1] Jx <= most likely holding given action and board run out
[2] stubborn 4x <= small number of combinations because of reduced number of 4x in preflop flatting range and most players will give up with their 4x to a turn 2barrel on this board
[3] Ax <= small number of combinations because you flatted pre
[4] K9, Q9 <= depending on your floatiness, which will be perceived as low OOP on A hi boards
[5] busted FDs <= the extent to which your perceived range will contain busted draws will be a function of the frequency and types of boards you play aggressively
[6] busted weak draws with some hi card SDV, KQ, KT
Because we are OOP on the river, villain will adjust our checking range depending on his perception of the range we donk into him (if we have or are perceived to have a donking range here). For example, some villains will have a severly contracted [4] range when they check to villain on the river here because they lead 100% of the time.
Assuming we always check call with [3] & [4] and most of the time with [1] ; for villain to believe that 3barrelling to be more profitable than giving up when checked with his bluffs, he needs to assume that the check folding ratio of [2], [5] & [6] is sufficiently high.
If we play our flopped draws aggressively and aren't super floaty in general OOP then most of our range is comprised of [1] when we check to villain on the river here which he will realise and probably expect us to call with. As such, villain would strictly prefer to bet for value and gives up with his bluffs which would imbalance his betting range (this would be characteristic of a ton of low stakes fish when they overbet jam in this spot). But psychologically, if he gives you credit for knowing that he will know that, then he can bet the river very profitably and exploit the fact that you will be folding with far too high a frequency.
At the end of the day, you have close to the top of your range. Which if your folding to a jam here is very exploitable. Calling when you're behind sucks but against good players you shouldn't leave such glaring frequency imbalances in your game imo.
Can i use your math type coffeeway when im readless and dont know if his range is strong?
Now on this hand i think he is trying to rep Ax and make you fold all your draws plus Jx 4x type hands , his range contains a lot of draws on the river , the question is if he is capable to shove with them and it wouldnt be so bad in this kind of board , i think its an easy call , there is not really a better spot to call on the river than this with a second pair readless.