Villain is tight aggressive and has c/raised me 8 times over an 18 hand sample. Villain also barrels a high frequency and is 3betting a strong range preflop. So I decided to make a small c bet on the flop with the intention of folding out villains air and keeping the pot small so I would get a cheaper price if villain c/rsed.
So on the turn I'm thinking Villains range consists of draws, KT/QT/JT type hands, 2 pairs and flopped straights. With very few strong aces or trips as he would have likely 3bet preflop.
If I jam I need villain to fold 53% of his range, so If I am confident that villain is capable of making a good fold with a paired ten or busted draw on the turn, then is this a good spot to jam over his turn bet as a semi bluff?
Also what do you guys think about cbetting smaller here? Would coming back over the top on the flop make any sense vs a villain with these tendencies?
Thanx
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players • PokerStars
$28.57+$1.43
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight.com
| SB | hero | 1275 | |
| BB | Villain | 1725 | |
Effective Stacks: 21bb
Blinds 30/60
- Pre-Flop (90, 2 players) Hero is SB
- Flop (240, 2 players)
- Turn (720, 2 players)
i´d just call. you get a good price for your draw. if you push, i think it´s unlikely villain will fold on such a board.
cheers
s.
I'm interested to know why you would just call here.
I would be committing half my stack with low equity against any made hand. Surely this is a push or fold situation? Calling just seems weak to me.
Any other views. This forum seems dead at the moment. Surely someone else has a view on this?
Villain checks, hero bets 90, Villain raises to 240, hero calls 150
^ Not likely he would reraise wtih any A. Much likely he will raise any 10/9 or flush/draw-board. So either he is on 10/9 wanting to kill the game before you hit anything on the river or he is bluffing missed draw/flush. I think it's a flip decision. Have you ever seen him bluff or after hands suspect it I would call, but otherwise versus a Tihgh-agg I would fold.
Swedish
Student who eventually gonna crush. Just learning. PM if u need a analyze-buddy.
Thanx for the reply lawboyy.
Only a 150 hand sample on villain. He is a thinking reg, but as i mentioned in the original post he had been c/rsing alot, especially draws and was consistently following through with barrels, Which is the reason I ever considered this play in the first place. My thinking was that even though I was priced in to call it would be a more +EV play to shove and take the pot down there and then as I felt he was more than capable of a fold with his draws and weak flopped top pair type hands. I still cant see how commiting such a huge portion of my stack on a call to try and hit my draw would ever make sense. I figured there was alot more Ax in my range than his and his previous play suggested he was on a draw.
Ive ran the numbers for the ranges I put him on and it seems like this is a decent play math wise (could be wrong though....I suck at math). Just wondering if this is one of those "reading too much high stakes" problems?
down bet the flop to shove over a check raise
I think his sizing on this flop doesn't contain any 1 pair hands as this would be really suck to play if you continued in the hand. I'm assuming he would just shove that stronger Tx range and would size 68 J8 like this. I don't even think he would check riase a pair and a flush draw non allin here.
If he has any semi bluffs i think its like 67 Q7 hands he's clearly planning on folding to a raise
Bauce.
If guy is really check raising near 50% I really don't think id be c betting unless I planned to shove or was going to call down. Unfortunately on this board I rarely see him c/r folding and I really don't think this hand plays very well vs his range (a lot of your outs aren't live vs his range.) Your range when u shove also looks a lot like what u have vs having an overpair or 2 pair or a set because of your sizing. Id check back this flop.
Hi there Ellzebub
I think your mistake is not bet-shoving the flop. We have 2 overcards and an open ended straight draw, giving us 55% vs any flopped pair. It's hard to put someone who c/r 50% of the time on better than a 1-pair hand, and we have a strong draw. Opponent could possibly have the nut flush draw, against which we are not doing well. However, I think that's a small part of his range.
All in vs c/r on the flop is the best play I think.
Hi adam,
Thanx for the reply
According to equilab I am a dog to pretty much any top pair with a paint kicker. I don't imagine villain would c/r with a weak top pair on this flop and I don't think he would c/r any weaker pairs unless he held a draw + pair maybe. There is only an 18 hand c/rse sample so I think these are safe assumptions to make about villains likely range.
If I'm a dog to all his top pairs, 2 pair+ that would c/r and only fold out his flush and str8 draws then does it not make sense to see a turn card? Is there enough fold equity there to make a bet shove + EV?
Hi there Ellzebub
Granted your sample is rather small. However, this is almost always true in HUSNG. I really don't think you can put your opponent on TP with a good kicker based on 8/18 c/r vs your flop cbet. I would 100% shove over his c/r. If opponent shows up with Q10 or better, we still are not completely crushed.
There are 310 chips in the pot. Almost all the time opponent will not have a strong hand here. I would expect to see a fold.