I only have 3 hands but this guy is def a fish. I potted the turn to fold out his A hi and K hi
This river is perfect for me to barrel vs any of his draws that missed. If i was going to bluff river vs that range i would just bet small def less than 1/2 pot.
I'd bet pot to try and fold him off 77 and A5 . I think potting looks really eager and reps very little i expect him to look me up really lite if I do.
I had it in my head that i was going to check call any river bet, but that session all the fish were trapping the hell out of me with the nuts, I wouldn't even consider posting this hand until he showed his bluff.
Like I said if either one of us pots this river the other should call any pair.
My question is in these spots where i river less than 2nd pair vs a range that includes draws
what is the best action for the river.
1. Pot river
2. Bet 1/2 pot against his air
3. Check call a Pot sized bet vs his air
4. Check fold to a small bet (1/2 pot or less)
(also can Crev help me make these decisions more effectively.)
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players • PokerStars
$3.40+$0.10
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight.com
| BB | hero | 390 | |
| SB | player1 | 610 |
Effective Stacks: 20bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB
player1 raises to 40, hero calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
hero checks, player1 checks
Turn (80, 2 players)
hero bets 80, player1 calls 80
River (240, 2 players)
hero checks, player1 bets 360, hero folds
Final Pot: 240
player1 shows high card Ace
player1 wins 600 ( won +120 )
hero lost -120
hi andre
i just modeled your river situation for GTO play (assuming more or less reasonable ranges on both sides). for simplicitiy´s sake, i just went with the shove on the river , which is a slight overbet (be it the BB, or the SB).
you should bet all your two pair, Qx, most of your 8x, some of your 6x, plus all your hands that have a blocker to the nuts (like J4, assuming that´s in your turn betting range). additionally there are some very few random bluffs like 97.
maybe someone can verify that to some degree.
it´s a very simple model. hopefully i´ll find the time and come back with a more detailed solution that also incorporates turn play, i.e. figure out if your lead OTT was a good idea in the first place. i think it is, but i´ll let the software say a little more about it.
the SB´s Jam with AK was pretty horrendous.
cheers
s.
Thank you very much for the analysis
especially the point about being able to bet some 6x on the river. This is not one of the 6x hands I can bet on the river. I don't want to always get here with the very bottom of my range or i'll be bluffing too much, (even considering how infrequently I have a hand like 63s here)
If we were 25 deep i could check raise a delayed C bet and shove all rivers, but here I think i might have to just check fold turn vs a delay Cbet.
Bauce.
Pseudo GTO simulations for a $3.5 game.
This could be the beginning of the end of the profitability of online poker.
:P
haha
HAHA
I'm just working my way up the stakes and i want to multiable regs in the higher levels.
This just looked like an interesting spot that would come up often.
Bauce.
i had some spare time today and took a little closer look at the situation.
first of all, your lead on the turn with the FD was good. checking and folding on the river as well. in a two street model the ranges thinned out a little naturally, so your betting range for the river here should be sth like:
your straights of course (64,A4,)
two pairs (like Q8,Q5,Q3,Q2, 85,83,82)
queens better than Q7
as bluffs you should incorporate in your range some hands that contain blockers to the straights (like T4, K4,96)
also you can bluff some of your missed gutshots, like T9
cheers
s.
Hello
Dipl.Komp, what programs do you use and how do you analyze, to determine street by street action based on ranges like you did?
I found out quite interesting that alot of bluffs (primarily gutshot and nutblockers) should be continued until river,
it is something that I don't have the "balls" to pull it off yet.
for the analysis i used the software will tipton coded in his video series.
i assumed the following ranges for SB:
Ax that don´t have a FD, bad queens, 8x, 3x, gutshots, bad FDs (like 74s), JJ, TT, 99, 77, 66.
in other words: the SB only bets the flop with sets, strong FDs and combodraws, top pair, good kicker, two pair and his air. i assume that to be quite a reasonable range.
the BB starts out with his entire PF calling range, which i assume to be the top 65% excluding PP and strong broadway holdings, so both players have quite a wide range. i also assumed that the SB will only call or fold a bet on the turn, or check behind. also i kept the betsizes in the hand. so first bet will always be pot, second bet will be a slight overbet shove.
also i used 4 different river cards. the one that actually got dealt, plus 3 others of different suit, so that one in four boards has a flush on board to make the simulation a little more realistic.
betting the straight blockers was also surprising to me at first, but actually i think it makes a lot of sense. the BB has quite some A high and missed FDs and weak bluffcatchers (like K3) in his range, that he will have to fold. also you having a blocker significantly decreases the chance of the SB holding a straight. in my simulation, the SB needs at least top pair to profitably bluffcatch in this spot.
cheers
s.
Thank you very much for the detailed response.
Since the 6x is also a straight blocker, and BB had very little showdown value,
do you think it was more +ev if BB shoved river instead of checking back?
Does pairing the two on the river change BB's expectation and alter his decision?
Your analysis made me realized how much of a nit and straight up player I am, and need to incorporate more bluff combos in my range, street by street.
Is there a tip for someone like myself (no access to Will Tipton's material) to maintain enough bluff/ value combo ratio in my range, to avoid being too heavy on one side?
Sorry for all the question!
not betting most 6x, but all 4x is a function of villain´s range, i think. 64 is part of villain´s air range OTF, which i assume him to bet OTF, so it´s not in his range that gets to the river. Villain should only have A4 in his range as straight candidates. so holding a 6 on your part does not decrease villain´s possible value holdings on the river, but a 4 does, which makes bluffing with T4 more profitable than with 62. plus there is a remote chance that villain has Ax (or a draw that missed), which he will check back on the river quite often and 62 will take it down.
i think with the BB´s actual holding it is of no importance if he hits the 2 on the river. he should only bet 6c2c if he hits his flush.
my tip: get will´s books. seriously. they´re a bargain. by far the best strategy books on the market today. both books will cost you 40$, if you want to learn about GTO, you should invest that money. other authors will charge you twice as much for a fraction of the content, worse explained.
cheers
s.
Thank you for explaining the meaning of betting 4x when considering card removal from his range.
I will definitely look into Will Tipton's material if so highly recommended.
Thank you once again for your thorough explanation, really learned a lot.