Can I fold this flop vs a check of this size?
This guys has played 1ks and his recent history shows he plays 200s.
He has check raised 2-3 flops so far and I used this smaller size to induce a light check raise.
I don't expect his pair+ straight draws to check raise to this size. I expect all his flush draws, open ended straights and pairs to check shove but this line is interesting, If he's check raising 2 pair, straights and flush draws (for which i have no blockers) can I bet fold this flop?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players • PokerStars
$6.85+$0.15
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight.com
| BB | player1 | 435 | |
| SB | hero | 565 |
Effective Stacks: 15bb
Blinds 15/30
Pre-Flop (45, 2 players)
Hero is SB
hero raises to 60, player1 calls 30
Flop (120, 2 players)
player1 checks, hero bets 45, player1 raises to 120, hero goes all-in 505, player1 goes all-in 255
Turn (870, 2 players, 2 all-in)
River (870, 2 players, 2 all-in)
Final Pot: 870
player1 shows a flush, Jack high
hero shows two pair, Jacks and Eights
player1 wins 870 ( won +435 )
hero lost -435
As you correctly point out some players will shove their draws and only raise NAI here with made hands conditionally strengthening their NAI c/r range.
That said, lots of players will play 8x the same way which we crush and there are way more combos of than 2 pairs & straights.
Additionally he can play draws like this some non zero percentage and also bluff this way too because this board is pretty much a perceived OOP defending range's wet dream.
On such a dynamic board, it's quite valuable to fold out villain's equity & we are only 15bb deep so it's not like we are giving up a huge amount of expectation vs the top of his get it in range when we are behind. I would have played it the same way.
Thank you very much for the analysis.
Bauce.