Poker Stars $3.40+$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players
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Hero (BTN/SB): t500 25 BBs
BB: t500 25 BBs
Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with K
A
Hero raises to t40, BB calls t20
Flop: (t80) J 8 Q(2 players)
BB bets t40, Hero raises to t110, BB calls t70
Turn: (t300) 9
(2 players)
BB bets t150, Hero folds
1st hand of match
Flop: It's hard to me to think about villain's range without any info but I'll try.
Qx - usually this type of hand plays x-r to get max from draws (maybe not AdQx), so i would assume he might more likely to hold a draw or Jx maybe 8x. But then he's calling my almost 3x raise so most of 8x would fold and many Jx as well
So what is left is: draws mainly combo like mine, Jx that didn't fold like 7/9dJx AdJx, AdQx, some risky playing 2 pairs maybe few low flushes.
After he bets half pot on turn I came up with this range:
I need only 25% equity to call and I have, considering this range, 34,5%.
To sum up what to do on turn call? raise ? ( better option in my opnion because i'm creating some f.e. ) or my range is incorrect and fold?
thanks
Just three words: Call the flop.
Thanks for replay. But can you tell me why you prefer to call flop? And assuming situation i call the flop and he barells halfpot on 9 you call again?
We have 2nd nut FD on super drawy board. If you raise, probably nothing worse calls you on the flop. If villain has any bluffs in his donking range, why do not you let him bluff? You can call ANY turn card with this particular hand.
What would you do if villain decides to stack off right on the flop?
This is equity vs TOP 2 on the flop:
Board: Jd8dQd
Range 1: AcKd
Range 2: QhJh
Equity 1: 44.343% Win 1: 44.343% Tie 1: 0.000%
Equity 2: 55.657% Win 2: 55.657% Tie 2: 0.000%
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And this is our equity vs same hand on the turn:
Board: Jd8dQd9h
Range 1: AcKd
Range 2: QhJh
Equity 1: 27.273% Win 1: 27.273% Tie 1: 0.000%
Equity 2: 72.727% Win 2: 72.727% Tie 2: 0.000%
This is just a theoretical situation, and in general I do not expect his range being that strong. If we hit a T or a diamond on the turn, we have pretty much the nuts.
Even if we think that his range on the flop is bluff heavy, I'd still be calling. Cause this play has less variance in itself and it is mathematically correct. Even when villain has blocker to a str8 / FD, we can still call 2 streets.
With raising, you are just narrowing his range. Cause you are not really raising for value. He just folds his bluffs (if he has some) and continues with everything else that hit a piece of that texture.
Here you just got into a nasty spot on the turn, as villain leads into you after you c/r on the flop. It seems like a super strong line to me.
I think turn play does not matter here. You should focus on flop play here.
Ok, i understand now. Much appreciation for Your review. You asked what I do if he would shoved on flop.
Well I was planing to call it. I'm left with 350 pot is 1000 so if i didn't made mistake in calculations after raising his donk I need to have only 26% equity.
You are calling t350 into pot of t1000. That is 350/1000 = 35. So you need 35% equity to call. But I think we should consider what is the best flop play here, instead of calculating whether we can stack off on the flop. Raising with draws used to be good in the past. And it is also good nowadays vs certain opponents or at certain stack depth. Because when we raise a draws, we don't do it for value, right? We do it also to generate some fold equity.
Good luck at the tables.
Pozdrawiam ze Słowacji ;)