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xTheRockx99's picture
15$ 4betshove or fold ?

No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$14.39+$0.61 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BBHero1400  SBzeki2041600  Effective Stacks: 70bb Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players) Hero is BB zeki204 raises to 80, Hero raises to 180, zeki204 calls 100 Flop (360, 2 players) Hero bets 150, zeki204 raises to 414  Hero ? This is maybe 5th hand of HU. He opened every button to 80 and I folded. There are nor a lot of good players.We have 35% equity and here is little chance that he is bluffing.. What would you do ?

STP1923's picture
i'd shove

He seems to be very aggro in the btn and I wouldn't give him 100% credit for a K here.You made a small 3b pf which lets his range a bit wider(if u would've 3bet to 220 thats a bit diff).On the flop you made an underbet and his raise might be resulting from you underbet.Make it short, there are chances he has a K here but i don't think that Kx is his whole range.  We might add some 8x which he raises your underbet to protect in which case  a shove is correct, also he might raise with a straight draw, oesd or gutshot too.Judging the betsizing and how his image is I would shove here as even if he has the K we still have ~36% to complete and there are 914 chips in the pot already, you put 1k over and assuming he calls you still have nice pot odds.More I think it, i see no way of folding here. 

xTheRockx99's picture
Thank you for your

Thank you for your opinion. Just for my smaller 3b pf. When he called 180 that he would call 220 too I think. I wanted to keep pot little bit smaller with initiative. It means that I had better fold equity on my 4-bet with smaller pot a smaller raises.  In that hand I shoved and he called me with K7s.

eldooder's picture
I wouldn't have 3 bet vs this

I wouldn't have 3 bet vs this kind of player with that hand. I would have thought you would be better off flatting rather then building the pot...

OMG_IM_DRUNK's picture
3bet shove flop but flat PF

3bet shove flop but flat PF

ka5321's picture
    zeki204 raises to

 

  •  
  • zeki204 raises to 80, Hero raises to 180, zeki204 calls 100
  • lets calculate this in terms of BB 
  • effective stacks:70BB deep
  •  
  •  pot size on flop:360=18BB
  •  u lead for7.5BB, and he reraises u to 20.7BB=20.7+18+7.5=46.2BB on flop now
  • with 53.5BB stack remaining if i folded flop:
  • and 40.3BB remaining if i called flop:
    • dead money in pot: 7.5+20.7+18=46.2BB in pot
    •  
    • ur remaining stack:53.5 for jam flop
  • viewing villains flop raise in a spectrum, we shouldnt limit his flop raise 
  • only to KX
  • assuming these frequencies villain is raising on flop
  • 75% KX
  • 5% OESD
  • 5% weaker FD
  • 15% nut FD
  • 5% 67 OESD
  • factoring all variables
  • 9Q  vs   67
  • 68.7% vs 31.3%
  • 140BB(.687)-70BB(.313)= 117.4 expectations
  • 5% weaker FD
  • 9Q      vs  weaker FD
  • 78.8% vs 21.3%
  • 140BB(.788)-70BB(.213%)= 95.4expectations
  • 10% nut FD
  • 9Q vs Nut FD
  • 21% vs 79%
  • 140BB(.21)-70BB(.79)=-25.9 expectations
  •  
  •  
  • jammin expectation vs KX
  •  
  • equity wise: 37% vs 62.7%
  • 140BB(.37)=51.8BB-70BB(.62.7%)=7.91 expectations
  •  
  • now calculate the overall EV of jam flop
  • .05(117.4)+.05(95.4)+.75(7.91)-.1(25.9)=5.87+4.77+5.93-2.59=13.98 +EV net gain
  • mathematically speaking, ur bet/3-bet line is the most +EV when faced with a flop raise...

                                                         

Barrin's picture
Nice math. But it isn't kinda

Nice math. But it isn't kinda incomplete?First of all: we gave him 15% and not 10% of the time the NFD. But that is not the big difference. More importantly, we are asumeing that he would call in 100% of the cases, aren't we missing FE? Also; why do you never give him an Overpair or a Set? If he calls the 3bet preflop with 76 (only OESD possibility) why should he fold 55 or 88?

Hi.

ka5321's picture
we're assuming our

we're assuming our expectation on 3-bet shoving when called by villain here.. so i factored out the FE aspect in this hand, since we're only weighing our long term expectations with the bet/3-bet jam line with our 9Q flush, when faced with a raise flop....i think i felt that overpair TT-QQ, basically belongs to the same group as KX TP hand range, since im still drawing to my 9 outs for flush vs villains hand range...its my mistake not to factor in set hand combos, but the set hand range tht villain would raise flop with, is so narrow ..apprx1-2%, tht its not going to drastically change our end result for calculations... 

McSchnitzel's picture
how did you calculate that?

how did you calculate that? with what programme etc.

ka5321's picture
just used formulas on

just used formulas on expectations from No limit theory (david sklansky)used assumed frequency, and ranges...plug in # and calculated