Guy was pretty much an unknown. Only played 10 hands before, but he didn't really show any aggression yet.
I know I really missplayed the turn, should have bet bigger for a lot of reasons. (set stacks up for river, protect, get value)
He snap shoved the river. Are we suposed to fold this river?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$14.69+$0.31
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | Havilaci | 580 | |
| SB | Hero | 420 |
Effective Stacks: 14bb
Blinds 15/30
Pre-Flop (45, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero calls 15, Havilaci checks
Flop (60, 2 players)
Havilaci checks, Hero bets 30, Havilaci calls 30
Turn (120, 2 players)
Havilaci checks, Hero bets 60, Havilaci calls 60
River (240, 2 players)
Havilaci goes all-in 460, Hero goes all-in 300
id he didn´t show any aggression yet, it´s a clear fold, even with a straight. at those levels, if they check call flop and turn and push the river, once the flush hits, they hit their hand.
Don't hurry up folding here. First let's analyze his range.
Given that he hasn't shown any aggression so far, we'll exclude air from his range and put him on monsters only.
Possible monsters are (I ignore splitting here):
- slowplayed sets: 44, 66, JJ, 88 -> 4x3 = 12 combos
- rivered set: 22 -> 3 combos
- rivered lower str8 (and not flush): 35 -> 11 combos
- rivered flush: 45 combos
Total: 26 combos we beat, 45 that beat us => 45:26 = 1.73 : 1.
Pot odds: 540:300 = 1.8 : 1.
This says it's a marginal call. However, you need to weight the possibilities that we indeed have all those 26 combos that we beat. It's certain all 45 flush combos can be played this way, but it's not 100% sure that all those sets and lower straights are in this range, so we might have to consider less than 26 combos there which makes the call not profitable anymore.
Tough without any reads.
PS: indeed a good player would have raise a set either on the flop or on the turn, here I assumed Villain is passive. Also a good player will probably not overbet shove the river.
i think you´re over analyzing the situation a bit. sometimes poker is a very simple game and i guess this is one of those situations. loose passive fish (almost) always have it, when they go berzerk on the river.
apart from that, i don´t think, a loose passive fish is shoving the river with a set, when a straight AND a flush are possible.
cheers
s.
Yeah this is almost always a rivered flush vs a passive fish who c/c with FDs then donk out looking to get paid off when they hit.
You won't see sets much because PPs will get in pre (except vs the most passive of fish).
I agree with comments that most passive players would be unlikely to value bet < flush here.
Interesting comments about turn bet sizing.
It's a balance between extracting value and sizing your bet such that you overtly overprotect your hand vs draws and miss value vs price sensitive villains.
This is an at-the-margin nuance which you have to guage from other spots.