This is the situation: we are nine hands in the match and he played an aggressive strategy from the BB where he made a few 3-bets and leads out the flop. What also is important that this player bets with 30 chips instead of 40 for 100% of the time. In this hands he leads out. I put him on 8 or 10 and try to push him out of the pot by my first re-raise pre-flop. I raised him to 80 and tried to represent the ace. Maybe 90 or 100 would be better here. He calls on this board so I am almost 100% sure he doesn't have the ace, also considering his aggression pre-flop from the BB. After the jack on the turn he checks, he could have 9-7 or Q-9 but well that was a risk I was willing to take. I made a decent turnbet and he calls again. The last card is a blank. I thought I was lost at this pont. Anyway, I just went for it and put my last chips in hoping for a fold. He did, lucky me. I represent the ace well I think, but would you normally check on the river, why would he call the turn and fold the river, or would you do the same as me? I am really lost with this hand, so some advice would be nice.
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | Hero | 440 | |
| BB | Maaans | 560 |
Effective Stacks: 22bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, Maaans calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
Maaans bets 30, Hero raises to 80, Maaans calls 50
Turn (240, 2 players)
Maaans checks, Hero bets 140, Maaans calls 140
River (520, 2 players)
Maaans checks, Hero goes all-in 180, Maaans folds
Final Pot: 520
Hero wins 700 ( won +260 )
Maaans lost -260
Against these spewy aggro type villains I prefer to tighten up my opening range so that my postflop ranges will be on average stronger to take advantage of the value their tendencies will donate. I would fold 62s on the button vs this guy.
As played, we see a flop in a single raised pot and the flop comes AT8 r.
Villain underbet donks 30 into 80.
This will usually be a Tx, 8x or a draw as weak as a gutshot. Spewtard fish can also donk complete air here.
Given villain's aggression we assume he would be 3b Ax for the most part, and if he has any Ax in his range he would look to c/r in this spot rather than donk.He basically never has Ax here.
As such, your options at this stage are fold, flat to float and take away pot later in position or raise.
I like your decision to raise. I would probably 3x to 90 but your 80 is fine. Villain will probably fold out his air + some of his better hands which have you beat.
His calling range will likely be narrowed to Tx, sometimes 8x and draws.
The turn comes J r. Note this improves his range more than yours => a lot of his single pair hands now have improved to 2pair or have picked up straight draws here.
I think this is a terrible card to 2barrel and I would be inclined to just give up here against this guy. Had villain lead out this turn, it would be an easyfold.
He checks to you and you 2barrel 140 into 240, leaving 180 behind.
This bet sizing is awful if you plan to 3barrel the river.
Betting > 1/3 of your stack means that if you then jam the river, villain should almost never be calling turn and folding river.
You may be able to get better fold equity on the river by betting the turn smaller so you can bet the river bigger and apply more pressure.
But villain folds to your tiny river bet anyway. Not sure what he can do this with other than maybe a gutshot that never got there.
All we can really conclude from this is that this guy is an epic fish. A legendary fish that looses enough to feed an entire village.
The fact he called a pot committing turn bet (with any sort of perceived reraise flop then 2barrel turn range) and then folded to a tiny river bet suggests our min raise of 62s was probably incorrect.
My suggestion tighten up that preflop raising range and get ready to start firing stupidly exploitable size value bets vs this guy.
Analogy: forget trolling those hand lines, bring out the one-shot, kill-shot high powered spear gun to take down this whale :)
fabulous! i have to remember that one
I agree with you for the most part except your analyse about the turncard. There are not that many jacks in his range at this point and certainly not more than in my range. I could have basically any jack and he could have 3-bet many jacks: AJ, KJ, QJs and maybe even J10s. He could have folded some Jacks pre-flop like J2os-J5os and he would have folded most jacks after my re-raise and I think he donkbet for sure because he had the 8 or the 10 or some outs for a street. So he could have J8, J9, J10 or J7 and maybe KJos. Not that many hands. Most likely is that this jack is a scary card for hands that have a weak pair. Consider that he donkbet with most likely a bottom pair, the jack is a great card to barrel again. I rather barrel on this card than do a barrel on cards that are lower than an eight
Why would you think it is a fish? When he would have for an example a hand like Q8, with a gutshot draw and the implied odds for the river it was perhaps a light call but a risk he taked. When he checked on the river it could have been that I also checked and than he won the showdown. Why would I 3-barrel here when you get called in 95% of the cases? Maybe that was a mistake from my part. If he really thinks I had a better hand than him, what would be true in 90% of the cases, it would be a good fold from hime to save these 180 chips. I think the mistake he made is that he made a to light call on the turn if he was 95% certain I had a better hand than him.
LVT
sorry, i have to agree with cdon here. the J really is not a good card for you to barrel, because it hits his donking range super hard. many Tx and 8x have improved to 2pair, 97 has gotten there, J9 has hit second pair, which probably will not fold to a river barrel, KQ (although it´s probably not in his flatting range PF) has gotten there...
if he calls with Q8 on the turn, he really is a fish. it´s highly unlikely he will get paid off on the river with 4 to a straight out there (which also includes many 2pair combos for villain, which should keep hero from betting even an ace), except hero also has serious fish tendencies.
No problem, I see it from a different perspective. I do not see the big problem with the turnbet. If he hits two pair good for him. I put his donkbet on 8x or 10x. I look at his flatting range and it will have plenty of them with a weaker kicker. There are way more kickers that are lower than a jack. The only thing I want is to take the pot down on my turnbet. If he would fold every 8 and 10 that doesnt have a jack I am happy person and will have my FE without a problem. Maybe comment on that. As for the hand I went for the bluf and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Anyway, you can't be to worried about what the opponent has at the 7 dollar. I see people making calls when they have a few outs and not even have the equity when adding implied odds to it.
By the way if I have the ace it is a different ball game, I actually have something and I do not have to pull out a bluff. For this hand it is or setting up a bluf or fold the hand.
LVT
sorry, but i see no point in continuing with the discussion, because i don´t understand why you posted a hand in the first place if you think you played it fine. especially if you say it makes no sense to think about the range of a 7$ player. so why should i even bother thinking about it anymore? to me it seems you are looking for appraisal and not for advice. ok then, here we go: you played the hand fine.
I do not think I played it good. You could argue a lot about the betsizing on the flop and the turn and the riverbet. But to say that the jack is such a scary card and should stop all action is just not true. I made it clear that there arent that many jacks in his range and that it could work pretty to get FE. It also could mean that my bluff will not work. He could have called with a lot on the flop since my betsizing is bad. To have a problem with my turnbet I really do not understand.
LVT
He doesn't neccessarily need to have J in his hand to not fold to a turn barrel.
I think the previous comments still hold:
=> a lot of villain's OOP flat pre, donk and call raise on flop range has either improved on the J turn or has picked up additional draws to go with a medium strength made hand
=> if he's the sort of player that underbet donks A high boards OOP in single raised pots then flats reraises and checks the turn to you, he's going to often be calling a turn barrel
=> therefore we don't believe he is folding enough that a turn barrel is profitable here with your zero show down value 6 high
=> and if he does call with so little money left behind, he should never be check-folding to a river 3barrel
Be careful about making illogical comments like this. If you're founding your decisions in anything other than a rational decision making framework you're probably leaking expectation.
=> You should only be bluffing if you believe that on average it will have better expectation than all other options. Given the above reiteration of how often we believe villain will be folding to our turn and river barrels here, I think they were mistakes. (But of course, I would be happy to be wrong if someone could break down the fish logic of villain's play and show that combinatorically he will be folding enough to our line that it will show a profit).
=> We should always be thinking about what our opponent has, If you're not thinking about it, how are you any better than the non-thinking fish? How would you expect to find an edge on them? How do you expect you will devise a strategy that maximises your expectation against his range if you're not even thinking about his range?
=> If you believe that you are often up against someone who "makes calls when they have a few outs and not even have the equity when adding imoplied odds to it", I think you should seriously reconsider how often you want to be 3barrel bluffing. A more value oriented strategy will probably have better expectation against such tendencies.
As stated in an earlier post, I would simply fold 62s preflop given what we had seen from villain at this stage.
Because 62s is rarely going to yield value holdings postflop, to profitably play it from the button we need to know villain either:
- folds too much to min raises (>50%)
and / or
- gives up too much vs cbets, 2barrels, 3barrels (eg. he has very straight forward c/r ranges which caps his c/c range on many board run outs)
Not my best comment ever, I agree (-:. Off-course I am thinking about what my opponent has. In this specific hand I think he is weak. Why? Because he donkbet and than calls. We all agree he does not have the ace, and I want to use the ace to get him out of the pot. I already put 120 chips in this pot and make a decent turnbet what would have folded a lot of air and weak pairs. I only need around 35% folds here to be efficient with my turnbet. I think with a line that starts with a donkbet by the BB, a raise by the SB and than a check by the BB the SB has good prospects on the turn.
So basically what you guys are saying. I should have checked the turn and give up the hand and this would have better prospects than making a turnbet. If it is so, than this is a close call and doesn't need that much arguments. More important is the betsizing on my re-raise. Making it 80 gave me a difficult spot in the turn. If I would have raised it to 90 or 100 I would not have been in this difficult spot in the first place.
Also I would like to say to Dipl. Komp. I am here to argue about this hands and with most of the critic I agree. If I disagree with something, in this case the turnbet, there is a reason why. We are all here to discuss hands and also the person posting this hands will developing his own thought process after reading the comments and deciding if he agrees or disagrees. I hope your still up for debate.
LVT
Ok.
So I've had a bit of a closer look at what the Js does to villain's range.
If we give villain an OOP preflop flatting range of:
[KxQx-Kx2x,KxQy-Kx4y,QxJx-Qx2x,QxJy-Qx6y,JxTx-Jx3x,Jx8y-Jx6y,Tx9x-Tx5x,Tx8y,Tx7y,9x8x-9x5x,9x8y,9x7y,8x7x-8x5x,8x7y,8x6y,7x6x,7x5x,7x6y,6x5x,5x4x]
^^ Note if we assume villain is aggressive he would probably be 3b hands like KxQx so if you want to take some of these out that is fine. But for the most part I see 3b ranges being heavily weighted towards Ax + PP @ $7 level.
We believe villain can donk out and call a raise here with hands as strong as T8 and hands as weak as 76.
For the most part, we assume villain will be donking Tx, 8x and draws.
We give him a narrowed range after he donks and calls of:
[KxQx-KxTx,Kx8x,KxQy-KxTy,Kx8y,QxJx-Qx8x,QxJy-Qx8y,JxTx-Jx7x,Jx8y,Jx7y,Tx9x-Tx5x,Tx8y,Tx7y,9x8x-9x6x,9x8y,9x7y,8x7x-8x5x,8x7y,8x6y,7x6x,7x6y}
On a board of [AhTd8c]
His hand stats are:
32.4362% NOTHING | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
14.7990% NOTHING | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
29.5367% THIRDPAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
19.5223% SECONDPAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
3.7058% BOTTOMTWO | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
When the Js hits on the turn, his hand stats are now:
5.2925% NOTHING | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
1.3165% NOTHING | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
7.9443% LESSER PAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
31.8232% LESSER PAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
23.6982% LESSER PAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
8.7623% LESSER TWO PAIR | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
21.1630% STRAIGHT | NO OVERCARDS | NO FLUSH DRAW | ALREADY HAVE/BEAT STRAIGHT
You will notice the Js SIGNIFICANTLY improves his range.
As such, we don't expect that he will be folding much to a turn barrel.
You probably got lucky and ran into one of the hand categories which held a lesser pair + draw that missed on the river and so he folded to the third barrel.
But I think on average that Js is a bad card to barrel vs villain's likely range.
More importantly, I would stress that against this type of villain, just fold 62s preflop.
Do you agree?
Maybe 6-2s is a fold, I do not want to give up that many buttons and I think a minraise is 90% of the time fine with most suited cards. Maybe against this aggressive opponent I should be more value orientated. By the way, thank-you for your analyse, looks great! Some comments, I think the flatting range is to strong for this opponent. I think he calls basically with any suited 8 and 10.
Off-course I agree that the jack improves his range, most cards will do and that is not the point I wanted to make. The point of my bet is that after the jack every weak pair (8 or 10) and weak draws will fold against two overcards. That is why I made the bet there.
So lets take a look again from the perspective from the turn.
Definitely fold: 5,2% with only four outs and 8% that only have a lesser pair. That is 13,2%
Likely fold: a pair with 4 outs for a street: 32%, 1,5% with 8 outs and 24% with a pair and 8 extra outs. That is 58% that can can call or fold
Definitely call: the straight 22% and the two pair 9%. That is 31%
I need 35% FE to make this call ok. I will have 13% for sure and I think I can add half out the call or fold which is 28%. Making the total of 41% FE against 35% FE that I need against a pretty tight range because I would add any suited 8 and 10 to his range. It is a very close call but in the way I used your analyse the turnbet is still good.
Interesting is what would happen if the jack would not hit the board but lets say something below a 5. I think you are right that this would be a better card for me. A lot of draws miss and will fold and I could even make some 8 and 10 folds.
So as a conclusion. I think the jack is indeed not the best card for me to make a turnbet but it does not change the fact that the turnbet is still good because of FE from basically all the weak 8 and 10.
LVT
If we add in any suited T and 8 to his OOP flatting then donk here:
[KxQx-KxTx,Kx8x,KxQy-KxTy,Kx8y,QxJx-Qx8x,QxJy-Qx8y,JxTx-Jx7x,Jx8y,Jx7y,Tx9x-Tx2x,Tx8y,Tx7y,9x8x-9x6x,9x8y,9x7y,8x7x-8x2x,8x7y,8x6y,7x6x,7x6y]
His hand stats on the flop become:
30.3757% NOTHING | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
13.8040% NOTHING | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
30.5412% THIRDPAIR | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
21.8707% SECONDPAIR | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
3.4085% BOTTOMTWO | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
and on the turn Js:
4.8783% NOTHING | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
1.2060% NOTHING | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
14.3795% LESSER PAIR | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
29.4722% LESSER PAIR | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
22.1543% LESSER PAIR | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
8.2628% LESSER TWO PAIR | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
19.6468% STRAIGHT | ALREADY HAVE/BEAT STRAIGHT
FYI: to answer your question about a card below a 5 like a 4s, his hand stat would become:
25.8523% NOTHING | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
18.6055% NOTHING | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
50.5720% LESSER PAIR | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
4.9702% LESSER TWO PAIR | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
and if it was a 4 that brought a FD to the board, such as 4h:
23.9998% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
17.0058% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
1.9490% NOTHING | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
1.5607% NOTHING | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
43.5907% LESSER PAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
6.9303% LESSER PAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
4.5807% LESSER TWO PAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
0.3830% LESSER TWO PAIR | FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
=> I think villain folds a lot more to a barrel on a 4 turn than a J turn.