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bogdan314's picture
$5 ST - Check/call all the way K high on AAxxx board

10/20 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players

$5 Heads-Up Sit & Go

Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter

SB j574ck2 490  
BB Hero 510  

Effective Stacks: 25bb

Blinds 10/20

Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)

Hero is BB

sKcT

j574ck2 raises to 40, Hero calls 20

Flop (80, 2 players)

cAd2sA

Hero checks, j574ck2 bets 40, Hero calls 40

Turn (160, 2 players)

d9

Hero checks, j574ck2 bets 80, Hero calls 80

River (320, 2 players)

sT

Hero checks, j574ck2 bets 160, Hero calls 160

cdon3822's picture
Preflop => standard flatFlop

Preflop => standard flat
Flop => standard c/c
Turn => brings FD increasing the number of hands villain will 2barrel: villain can be 2barrelling wide here still vs flop c/c range
River => villain checked to in position on AAxxx board where turned FD missed on river against your polarised range of [stubborn SDV: Kx] & [slowplayed Ax]
=> he bets 0.5P, laying you pot odds of 25% (160/640)
=> he needs to be 3barrel bluffing with more than 1 bluff for every 3 value bets in his range on the river here to profitably call
=> his value is comprised of [Ax, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99] 
=> what size would he bet on the river with his value? his bluffs? => the same or different?
=> I actually think a river jam would more likely be a bluff than a 0.5P river bet
 
I think your 3 street call down here is pretty standard vs someone who is competently aggressive in position.
But I'm not sure if the population 2barrel turn bluff frequency on a AAx r board is high enough to continue vs the turn bet.
 
I'm guessing since you posted this hand, he showed you the Ax?
:P

bogdan314's picture
No, he showed 3d5d, but I

No, he showed 3d5d, but I don't think hand results are important for an analyze (actually may be misleading someone's judgement) so I never post it unless its obvious.

cdon3822's picture
Interesting that he didn't

Interesting that he didn't jam the river.