What do you think about calling off this c/r jam off?
My thinking is:
1. He doesn't have much Ax in his flatting range
2. And if he does, he wouldn't play it so fast
3. 9x would likely c/c
4. Most of his range is therefore semi-bluffed FDs which I have great equity against (65/35 ish)
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | Yasidvishes | 400 | |
| SB | Hero | 600 |
Effective Stacks: 20bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, Yasidvishes calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
Yasidvishes checks, Hero bets 40, Yasidvishes goes all-in 360, Hero folds
Final Pot: 160
Yasidvishes wins 480 ( won +80 )
Hero lost -80
1. True, most fish would jam AX 20bb or below
2. I would not be surprised if he plays his weak AX this way (people at $7 are very unpredictable)
3. I think his range here is mostly FDs (as you mentioned) or 9X(x being a card above 9 and a spade)
4. Taking everything into account this is a clear fold in my opinion. This is a $7 game and I am assuming you have a huge edge on this guy. Therefore, no need to put yourself in a position where you are playing a guessing game. I would fold and look for better spots.
Thanks for your reply.
1. Against my opening range you should definitely be 3b jamming all Ax @ 20BB. Fish are actually less likely to make this adjustment than regs.
2. A lot of fish have the leak of overprotecting vs draws - I agree if he did flat with Ax pre, he could play Ax this way. Good point.
3. Interesting comment about the overcard to the 9 => I think I underestimated the value of this on the fly.
4. Clear fold? I think it's a pretty close spot. I only need 40% equity to be better calling here than folding. Against a range which is likely heavily comprised of FDs, folding here could easily have worse expectation than calling. Why would I want to reduce my "huge edge" by "waiting for a better spot"?
1. I guess it is different how we few PTs ( or maybe on your site fish play a little bit differently. I play on Revolution network)
...
4. Againt unknowns I start by playing very careful and trying to figure out their range. I try not to put myself in guessing spots. At the end I guess it is just the matter of playing style.
To call here you need to know he can't have A3 I think. vs a normal FD range like KsTs,QsTs,JsTs,Ks8s,Qs8s,Js8s,Ts8s,Ks7s,Qs7s,Js7s,Ts7s,8s7s,Ks6s,Qs6s,Js6s,Ts6s,8s6s,7s6s,Ks5s,8s5s,7s5s,6s5s,Ks4s,6s4s,5s4s you would only have 41-42% wich is exactly what you need to call I think, so with any chance of him having A3 or any other value you are too far behind.
Even if he's extremely loose and play all suited cards, and raises all aces and KT+,QT+,JT+, and pushes with 93s you wouldn't get more than 40% equity
I think he could have at least A3 for value, and you would need pair of 9s, or T or maybe J high flushdraw to call his push
Thanks for your reply.
I have to call 400-40-40 = 320
for my equity share of 400*2 = 800 pot
So I need 320/800 = 40% equity to be indifferent between calling and folding.
Against the range you posted:
KsTs,QsTs,JsTs,Ks8s,Qs8s,Js8s,Ts8s,Ks7s,Qs7s,Js7s,Ts7s,8s7s,Ks6s,Qs6s,Js6s,Ts6s,8s6s,7s6s,Ks5s,8s5s,7s5s,6s5s,Ks4s,6s4s,5s4s
I have 41% equity.
Making this a very marginal call.
But as you mention, if he ever has Ax or 9x here and plays it this way, I'm crushed.
Maybe these times can be offset by random spew factor.
But on A high boards, players don't tend to muck around too much.
The undercard 2 hurts my equity more than I estimated on the fly against a lot of his semi-bluffing c/r jamming range.
I think if I hold a K and an overcard to the 9 I should probably be calling off here as I rarely have < 40% required to put the rest of chips in.
If you disagree, please let me know.
If his flushdraw range is somewhat correct and he pushes the entire range and A3 is his only value hand and he plays it like that 25% of the time, then you would have around 45% equity. A random would probably play a3 like that less than 25% of the time, but then again a random wouldn't push flushdraws 100% either. If you have Ks or Ts it is probably a call. I think KT-KQ without spade is very close, so it doesn't matter that much what you choose, but if you wanna tilt your opponent a little bit you can call :)