Summary:

Bet call / bet fold or check back on the turn will all be very close in expectation imo. I marginally prefer a check back because I don't expect villain to be folding much to a turn 2barrel after c/c this flop and I expect I can still get all in on the river vs villain because of:

- the way stacks are set up; &

-  a bet check bet line could be perceived more suspiciously if villain expects us to 2barrel our draws.

Details:

I think it's close.You are layed odds of 32.5% on a call vs villain's turn c/r jamming range.

Turn c/r are generally very strong and the all in sizing makes me weight villain's range heavily to made hands which want to protect vs the draws here. The hand he turned up with is not surprising at all => c/c 2nd pair then c/r jam turned 2 pair to get all in vs worse and fold out a ton of equity vs drawing hands.

I expect his range here to be usually comprised of:

- value => 2pair + (most villains will c/r their top pairs on this flop, so we expect his c/c then c/r range for value to be mostly 2 pair or better with the ratio of straights or better to fluctuate as a function of how aggressively he tends to play his flopped draws)

- bluffs => players will sometimes c/r jam here with overcard floats which turned a flush draw

But vs most villains we expect to be up against a value heavy range because if villain wanted to c/r his flopped draws, he probably would have done it on the flop (without reg v reg levelling dynamic to exploit 2barrel frequencies or balance flop c/c ranges).

So how does our monster draw fare vs villain's turn c/r jam value range?

To get an exact answer you would need to assign villain a preflop flatting range, a flop c/c range & a turn c/r jamming range.

A quick and dirty methodology is to assign villain a flatting range of top 20-70% of hands preflop, isolate his value hands on the turn and then solve how many bluffs villain needs to have relative to his value range to get to an indifference point. For the purpose of estimating equity, we will assume he gets to the turn with all his 2pair + hands from his preflop flatting range. To calculate a more exact answer, you should also consider the conditional affect of the flop action on villain's range at the start of the turn.

Vs a value turn c/r jam range of >= 2pair + our hand has 26% equity *

Vs a value turn c/r jam range which also includes any pair our hand has 36% equity **

Given any bluffs villain has in his turn c/r jamming range are likely to be semibluffs which maintain a ton of their equity when called (the overcard floats which picked up draws actually dominate our outs quite badly in this case), villain needs to be bluffing a decent amount here to dilute his value holdings up to an indifference point of 32.5%. Whether you bet call or bet fold it probably won't make a lot of difference to your expectation.

The real question becomes are we better betting the turn or taking a free card?

=> On this turn card I think I prefer to take a free card because:

1. The 8 is in close proximity to the other cards which completes any of villain's weak draws like gutshots

2. And if it doesn't complete his flopped draws or connected one pair holdings , his weak made hands which he c/c flop with picked up additional outs vs our perceived range (SD or FD) decreasing the probability that villain will fold to a 2barrel here

3. When we check back the turn and bink river, we sometimes get paid off on the river by curiosity/hero calls if villain levels himself into assuming we would 2barrel our draws. This is especially true given we are playing short stacked. The additional value is pretty debatable and bet bet bet vs villain's who will tend to c/c rather than c/r the turn could well be better, especially if villain also plays poorly on the river.

* propokertools PQL

select avg(equity(hero,turn)) as hero_equity
from
game = 'holdem',
hero = 'JdTh',
villain = '20%-70%',
board = '9c6h4h8hQh'
where
minhandtype(villain,turn,twopair)

** propokertools PQL

select avg(equity(hero,turn)) as hero_equity
from
game = 'holdem',
hero = 'JdTh',
villain = '20%-70%',
board = '9c6h4h8hQh'
where
minhandtype(villain,turn,pair)

8 is good card for barrel, but you have to bet any river card to became turn barrel profitable. On turn he is flating with FD, 6x, 78, maybe 9x etc. But he has to fold majority of his flating range on the river.

Hi there vherreral

I would check back this turn every time vs a random opponent.

8h is, in my view, a poor barrel card, since it completes the flush, 7-10 and 7-5, and does not bring an overcard to the board. More the the point, if villain has a pair with a higher heart, say Ah6c, our equity is fairly terrible. Furthermore, we price ourselves in to bet-call and get our chips in with questionable (albeit likely fairly good) equity.

On the other hand, if we check behind, we automatically get a free card, and get to play the river in position. We can then value bet, bluff or give up - all our options are open on the river if opponent checks - or bluff catch/fold if we hit Jx or 10x and our opponent bets.

So, in summary, there are essentially only very limited advantages to betting the turn, given we usually have a range of options in position on the river.

Hope this helps

I think it is a bet/fold if you bet it because you are far behind most of his bluffs (less than 25% eq) and have less than the required 33% against almost all his made hands.

I think this hand has very good equity vs his entire range on the turn, but has much less equity against villains continuing range. If you check back and make a straight, T, J or a T-high flush you can bluff-catch or value bet. That makes it a decent hand to check back.