Flat or jam on flop vs c/r NAI?
AND
Mistake folding the turn?
He jams 17BB into 16BB, laying me odds = 17 / 50 = 34%
I think this is an 8 a lot, protecting vs me taking a free card and playing the river in position with good equity.
I have [2 overs = 6 outs + OESD = 8 outs] = 14 outs = 14 * 2 = 28% equity.
I don't have the equity to call but if he's ever bluffing it becomes pretty close.
When I get c/r on flop, I figure I have the implied odds to peel and play the turn profitably with the advantage of position.
Is this the best play?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$3.40+$0.10
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | Hero | 500 | |
| BB | vvvYAKOLvvv | 500 |
Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, vvvYAKOLvvv calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
vvvYAKOLvvv checks, Hero bets 40, vvvYAKOLvvv raises to 120, Hero calls 80
Turn (320, 2 players)
vvvYAKOLvvv goes all-in 340, Hero folds
Final Pot: 320
vvvYAKOLvvv wins 660 ( won +160 )
Hero lost -160
What makes this spot particularly interesting to me is that there aren't a lot of higher card hands than Jx that are raise/folding on the flop. Otherwise, I'd call it a very simple flop jam (to push out bluffs that are actually beating your high card portion of your equity).
It still probably is a flop jam, you're not really trying to bluff catch with JT here, especially without some really interesting reads, and you have enough flop equity to stick it in (put it this way, vs the avg bluffing range and avg raising range, jamming here is going to be +EV not even taking into account pot odds... people have 8s here plenty and weaker draws are about as common as stronger draws... 9x is less common than 8x, people sometimes even get fancy with 9x and minraise or flat call it..).
You could see some raise folds from hands like K6, just random bluffs like that, and it's nice to fold those hands out on the flop, as you can't really do much when you brick a turn after flat calling.
Cheers for the breakdown.
I like with your advice for playing the flop.
I don't I was giving enough credit to Kx, Qx, draws, random bluffs to c/r here and the best way to realise my equity vs his entire range is to stick it in.
I think I sometimes give too much credit to NAI raises in spots where villain actually should have a decent amount of bluffs in his range.
I can definitely improve in these spots.