i had a nice upswing and were able to go from 10d hu sngs to 20d.it went pretty nice at first, won for some days at the 20s and then. boom. nothing seems to work, i loose every big pot and get coolered all the time, if i get guys down to 10 bb somehow, im never able to bust them. They always come back and win the sng by winning 5 flips in a row.i took the step down to 10 d sngs but it just keeps going on and on.ive tried to go through my hands but i cant find anything terrible wrong in the big pots, except a few tilt spews.its frustrating not to beat these micro/low sngs right off the bat, because my goal is to grind myself to nl50 or nl100 hu cash, and i feel like im in a hurry, which im not.how many sngs can a downswing last? assuming im a winning player at the reg speeds. hope the number isnt insane.
play around with the variance calculator on this site just dont overestimate your winrate if you only have a small sample size
It really depends on your edge, and without a large sample or somebody experienced watching you play a ton (not usually practical), it's going to be really tough to figure out what your likely edge is and in turn the length of downswings that will be common/uncommon.I would do what genty said, look at some estimated winrates you MIGHT have at your level, look at the variance calculator and look specifically at the downswings in each graph/sample. Don't put too high of a sample like 10k up there, something like 500-1k games should give you a good variety of possibilities for you to get a feel for what is and is not normal for various winrates.Also note, if you start to play bad your winrate goes down, so while you can be a 60% winrate player for 500 games, you could then experience a little variance and start to play worse, lowering your winrate to 57% or less (and thus making downswings more likely to occur).
i swear to god ive never run so bad. it just keeps going on. 96 % is apparently nothing.i get it in good in 95% of the matches but win like 20%. its getting ridicolous
be extra carefull not to let emotions/tiredness/tilt influence your play.like what happens sometimes is you lose a big pot early cuz villain sucks out on river then get tilted and amke 2-3 bad decisions that also cost u a ton of chips and u get to like t700 chips pretty fast.or when villain has t700 (it is just an example) chips he shove u call and are ahead and he sucks out and then u r angry for a few moments (momnets in wich u do take 2-3 decisions) and maybe play badly/outof hate. So the hard thing is to ceep cool when this crap happens. Do not make it worse by taking bad decisions.