Hi all,
I have 13 hands with villian. He opens 86% and VPIP 100% and limps 14%.
I need to bet 340 to win 420. That is 340/420 = 80.9%
My hand has 76% equity. So i am slightly better off not to call him. Am i right ?
Moreover if i narrow down the ranges that he could have (QQ+,TT,ATs+,K2s+,J9s,ATo+,K2o+,J9o), then i would have maybe 37% equity only.
Even if i take away unlikely hands like AA, KK , QQ, AK. (TT,ATs-AQs,K2s+,J9s,ATo-AQo,K2o+,J9o), my equity is only 38%.
Factor in some bluffs, it would still almost always be a bad call right ?
Any opinion ?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$14.69+$0.31
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | Chefe91 | 380 | |
| SB | Hero | 620 |
Effective Stacks: 19bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, Chefe91 calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
Chefe91 goes all-in 340, Hero folds
Final Pot: 80
Chefe91 wins 420 ( won +40 )
Hero lost -40
You see a single raised pot w 80 in the pot.
Villain donk jams 340.
You have to call 340, for your equity share of a pot that will be P = 340 + 340 + 80 = 760
This means you need 340 / 760 = 44.7% ~ 45% equity vs villain's donk jam flop range to be better off calling than folding.
Pretty weird line to say the least.
I'd like to say typically villain does this with a range of [X], against which you have equity of y%, so you:
- call where y > 45%
- fold where y < 45%
But villain's line is not typical => you don't see this much at all and are going to have a hard time guessing wtf [X] is here.
At a guess, this is a K or a Q, which is scared of the draws??
Maybe a strange stop and go play with a pocket pair?
Who knows. Maybe he's a genius, but I'm guessing this is some sort of fish logic that is going to be hard to decipher.
It's unlikely he does this 2pair or better.
So I'd say he has a pair, lets say Kx or Qx.
Against such a holding, you have a pair + OESD.
So you have (assuming your outs are all clean) outs to:
J = 3 outs
T = 2 outs
A = 4 outs
9 = 4 outs
BD FD = 1 out
total gross outs = 3+2+4+4+1 = 14 outs
Estimated gross equity = 14*4-(14-9) = 51%
hit and still lose ~ 20% of time, net outs 14 * 0.8 = 11 outs
Estimated equity on flop vs villain = 4*11 - (11-9) = 42%
Pretty close spot between a call and a fold.
If villain is ever doing this with a random bluff, it would be a call.
Otherwise, I think you have to make a marginal fold.