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Dikane's picture
Math: EV of a FlopPush

Hallo guys,

 

I want to ensure, that my formula is right.

a = FoldEquity

b = PreflopPot

c = Equity to Win when he calls

d = PushAmount (that money or chips, that I push)

 

EV= (a*b) + (c*(1-a)*b*d) - ((1-c)*(1-a)*d)

 

Is that right?

Pondus's picture
No

Multiplying with both PreflopPot and PushAmount in "he-calls-I-win" makes no sense.
EV = ab + (c(1-a)(b+d)) - (d(1-c)(1-a)) <- correct, but messy
EV = ab + (1-a)(c(b+d) - (1-c)d) <- also correct, easier to read and understand (chance he folds*amount + chance he calls*(chance I win*amount - chance I lose*amount))