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Charles Hawk's picture
Melanie Weisner at WSOP ME (2 hands analysis) (+INTERVIEW)

I got moved to a new table middle of day 3. I watched about one orbit of the table prior to this hand. Villian had check called KJ on AA34 3way and then led 6river into Ronnie Bardah, who called with 88. He opens to 3200 at 600/1200 from mp. I covered him, we were about 150k effective (I covered). I peeled the bb with A4o. Flop A44r chk chk. Turn 7 bringing backdoor flush I lead 4500 he calls. River o/s 3 I bet 11500. He makes it 25k. I go all in for 140k total. He tanks, cameras come over, and he starts talking out the hand then calls 33.

This hand is an interesting spot, especially in a tournament like this, because it touches so many crucial elements of tournament play. Firstly, hand reading and range analysis: I was able to narrow his range to very strong hands (1 combo of AA, 3 combos of 77, 3 combos of 33, and the occasional straight combinations that didn't bet the flop for some reason). Because of this, it very much aided in the river to decision to go all in rather than raise, for example, to 75k or so as it is very unlikely that an amateur will fold a boat. The only risk it poses is that I don't get to get away from AA when I 3b the river and he jams, but the profitability of winning 140k on the river vs 75k over 6 combinations and losing an extra 65k over one combination is not close. His most likely hand on the river also is slightly weighted to 33 as 77/AA occasionally raise the turn. Now, 140k is a really big bet given the pot size prior to river betting is only ~16k. But the ability to make an overbet all in in situations is often crucial to tournament play and capitalizing on your strong hands.  While my range might be face-up to a professional,an amateur player is going to be more concerned with the strength of his own holding, and may talk himself into an idea that I could be bluffing.

The next concept it touches on is reading table image and dynamic. Because of the way this guy had played a previous hand, it was clear that he was not scared/nitty. That means he would be less likely to be afraid of a big hand. Additionally, given the weak showdown he had the orbit before, a dynamic often materializes in this kind of situation where he will be less likely to fold an actual very strong hand since it is such a monster in comparison to his previous showdowns. This type of player was also less likely to be concerned about his "tournament life" as he was willing to get involved and make plays. This image and dynamic contributed to my ability to correctly make a read that he would call an all in the vast majority of the time that he would call a 75k-ish 3b, and extract max value from the hand.

Thirdly, it gives a view to the pressure that accompanies events of this magnitude, and how that pressure affects different kinds of players. Some players will do absolutely anything to avoid the risk of looking stupid on camera, and others will seize the opportunity to try to be a hero. There is also a level of machismo in certain players who do not want to get bluffed on television, and would therefore rather call and lose than fold and be shown a bluff. I believe the villain fell into the latter category, and if he was capable of making the fold, I believe that the cameras coming to the table tipped the scales even more in favor of a call than they might have been otherwise.

The key to this hand is being able to capitalize on your handreading and dynamic, and being able to correctly analyze a situation and execute plays that will extract maximum value from your opponent.

 

The second hand also occurs on day 3, at a secondary feature where I've been moved with Ronnie. The table is overall soft, and the villain is a tight amateur. At 1500/3000, a new player at the table opens to 7500 on the cutoff. I flat the button, covering and about 300k effective,with 7d6d. The villain, who is the bb with about 120k, also flats. The flop comes KdJdJh and it goes chk, 13000, I call, and villain calls. Turn 3d. Checks to me, I bet out a small 22.5k, intending to fold to bb jam, and BB jams for 102,500.The OR tanks and slams his cards down, I tank and start talking to the villain. Eventually I fold and he shows KJ.

To start with this hand, I flat 76dd otb here since I'm deep with the opener and Ronnie hasn't squeezed a lot, and the BB is going to play 3-way pots poorly, so I'm happy to flat here. I flat the flop with the flush draw, and bet the turn with the intention of folding to BB shove as once he flats 3-way his range is boats, jacks, and higher flush draws, but betting is mandatory here to protect vs jacks. (Jamming here with KJ is an amateur move as he should always flat here with that dominating of a hand, but one that I expect given his past play and inexperience). When the OR slams down his cards,it's clear he has a jack which is why I tank, as it leaves very few combinations of jacks left for the villain, and really only KJ as he is pretty tight preflop. However, I do have a flush and want to see if I can get any additional information to solidify my read (there's always a possibility he just does this with AJ, for example). But being tight, there are very few flush combos I have beat (and perhaps only 54dd). When I start talking to him and tell him what i have, his reaction indicates to me a further read that he has me beat, and I'm able to confidently fold.

The talk here is very important as it serves two purposes. Firstly, it allows me to match up reads of his behavior with action that I can use to my advantage in further play with him later in the day. Secondly, it allows me an opportunity to assess how he reacts to me and my behavior. Most importantly, the showing of the cards (presemably at Ronnie's egging on) allows me to concretely confirm my analysis of his play. This is why I stress often to peers and students the importance of understanding and utilizing table talk as it is an additional layer of information at your disposal that many people do not take advantage of, and being able to see someone's cards, or see a reaction when you reveal what your hand is, is very valuable information.

 

 

To read recent Melanie Weisner's interview: CLICK HERE

greentea's picture
Does Melanie know 4s full loses to 7s full?

in analyzing the first hand she talks about villain's range being 1 combo of AA, 3 combos of 33, and 3 combos of 77...  and that:

The only risk it poses is that I don't get to get away from AA when I 3b the river and he jams, but the profitability of winning 140k on the river vs 75k over 6 combinations and losing an extra 65k over one combination is not close.

but if she knew her 444AA loses to 77744, she would have realized she needs to compare the profitability of winning 140k on the river vs 75k over 3 combinations (3 combos of 33) and losing an extra 65k over 4 combinations (1 combo AA and 3 combos 77).  in fact if she can narrow the villain's range down to those 7 combos, her raise (any size) is -EV because she is always getting called and is losing more often than winning...

even pros can get cofused during play and think 'i only lose to AA here' when you're also losing to 77... but seems odd that she didn't realize this mistake when writing this explanation later.