Full Tilt Poker $100 + $5 Heads Up Sit & Go, Table 1 - 10/20 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 1: RiverKiller911 (1,480)
Seat 2: WBR (1,520)
RiverKiller911 posts the small blind of 10
WBR posts the big blind of 20
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to WBR [Jc Qh]
RiverKiller911 calls 10
WBR raises to 80
RiverKiller911 calls 60
*** FLOP *** [Ad 6d 4d]
WBR bets 120
RiverKiller911 calls 120
*** TURN *** [Ad 6d 4d] [Qs]
WBR checks
RiverKiller911 bets 280
WBR has 15 seconds left to act
WBR calls 280
*** RIVER *** [Ad 6d 4d Qs] [8h]
WBRi checks
RiverKiller911 bets 1,000, and is all in
WBR has 15 seconds left to act
WBR has requested TIME
WBR calls 1,000
Villain is a winning regular at 50s and around 0% ROI at 100s. Didnt play him before and it's a 3rd hand of a match, so have no reads on him.
On the flop I think it's standard to Cbet 3/4 pot. After he called, I decided to just give up.
Turn gives me a second pair, which may be good here, so I made a check to pot control. He made a solid bet, but I expected that a winning player can try to push me from pot.
River is brick, and he shoves. I made a call because his line doesnt look consecutive. If he had a flush and only c/c it, I expected he will try to milk me. But I'm not sure now.
What do you think?
This would be a lot easier if we had a better read on the villain. Some factors that are relevant here are whether he would bet worse on the turn (like a diamond draw) and whether or not he would jam on the river if he missed.
Against an unknown I think that the turn call is borderline but ok. However, it seems to me that the majority of randoms are incable of making triple barrel bluffs like this so I would lean towards a fold. On the other hand, I don't think many randoms are capable of jamming AX here for value so that makes it a bit closer in my mind. I'd fold the turn and fold the river as played, but I think that they are both very close.