In the video PrimordialAA Archive Video 14 - Playing $23/34.50s at about 14:00 Primordial has 96 IP on a board T9862. The action goes like this: flop check-check, turn villain bet 150-PrimordialAA call, river villain check-PrimordialAA bet 360.
Is this not a bit of an overbet (4/5 of the pot)? I can't really see villain calling with Tx or worse two pair here. On the flip side, if he does have a 7, QJ or if he check shoves as as bluff (unlikely, I admit), we are still forced to fold. So wouldn't a bet of about half the pot work a lot better in our favor? Or what worse hand are we expecting to call such a large bet?
I don't see any overbet here, he bets 360 into 450, which I think is a pretty standard value-betting size here.
IMO betting half pot here would be really terrible since it basically turns our hand face-up as it is, a weak made hand trying to get some value - we'd never ever bluff a missed draw this way and a straight would also bet bigger, so betting half-pot here would really invite him to check/shove as a bluff.
Don't remember this particular opponent anymore, it's been at least a week or two since I watched the video, but against a somewhat competent opponent you can't base you bet sizes on hand strength - instead, you have to think about what you're trying to represent.
Yeah I do understand the point in trying to induce him to catch a bluff with a larger bet, but that strikes me as a bit of a FPS for a $22 where the opponent seems to like a weak fit or fold player. Based on what we'd seen on the video I think there's a 0% chance he'd be capable of bluff shoving the river. And would you really bet bigger than half the pot with a 7 there where the opponent almost always has nothing or a weak made hand? I think 7x or 96 are almost the same against his range...?
I didn't see video or hand, but based on the hand and action as the OP described it, I think Primo's betsize was too large for low stakes, but totally fine/optimal at high stakes. The rationale is that it's a 4-straight board and at low stakes, we're not expected to ever have 2pair/sets in our range for value to bet the river. So we might as well just check, or bet really small and hope for an unlikely call.
As you move up in stakes, it's much more common for players to be able to float the turn IP with intent to bluff river. Because of this, it makes it a much better spot to call with 96 and then value bet the river. Since we're effectively working with a polarized range (that we're widening up the value end of), our betsize should be larger.
At any stakes, very few villains will ever c/r bluff the river after donking the turn.