I just posted a thread hoping to spark some discussion about how to respond to a 70% minraiser 20bb deep, because I think that's a really hard question to answer given how tricky it is to evaluate "call or jam light" decisions from the big blind. I noted that for once, I was posting a table and not at all being authoritarian about the analysis, putting it out there without my piece of "this is what it means" already attached to it.That's not going to be the case for this thread.Most opponents won't open as much as 70% from the small blind. Coming up with an aggregated percentage is tricky - I think most would agree it's somewhere between 50-65% that opponents raise on average (they will limp some as well), and if I had to pick a number, I'd say that it's about 55% at this stack depth when we know nothing about our opponent except that we don't know him (technically, that gives us information. I'd use a slightly more aggressive strategy against a random reg, even if I had never played him before, because regs tend to have higher opening frequencies). So let's use a 55% opening range (specifically, propokertools' top 55%), and a calling range of AA-22,AK-A5,KQ-KT,Ax4x-Ax3x,Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx. That's some light hands, but nothing crazy.I made a table of the expectation from 3bet jamming given these parameters compared to the start of the hand. -1.0bb is the same as folding to the raise. Here it is:In the traditional paradigm of looking at 3bet shoving (is it better than folding?), 35% of hands make the cut, being equal to or better than -1.0bb from the start of the hand. So, people will tell you that jamming a hand like J8s is +EV, because shoving is 0.3bb better than folding.This, however, is a ridiculous standard for deciding whether a play is +EV. We should always be comparing against the next most reasonable alternative - in the case of J8s, the obvious other choice is that we can flat.Lifetime, with Q8s, Q7s, J9s, J8s, J7s, T9s, T8s, T7s, 98s, 97s, and 87s, a cluster of hands similar to J8s to increase sample size, I am 0EV from the start of the hand from flatting. That's a whole 1bb in expectation better than folding, and much better than the expectation shown in the table for shoving - even though every single one of these hands is "+EV" when only held up to the standard of a jam just having to be better than a fold. That's why all of these hands, by a very wide margin, should be called instead of jammed against an unknown opponent for 20bb against a minraise.When you actually narrow it down to the hands that are worth 3betting, it's about 19.5% of hands. Since your opponent will openfold more often when you have bigger hands due to card removal, you'll have an even smaller actual 3betting percentage.Despite their mediocre equity from jamming, KQ, KJ, KTs, and QJs do extremely well in 3-bet pots, and gain a lot of value from making a potsized 3bet and inducing calls from loads of dominated hands, or hands with two undercards, that we play very well against on the flop. I recommend 3bet/calling these hands readless and bet/calling a ton of flops when you get flatted. Along with those hands can go your premium pairs, which also want to get flatted by a wider range.3-bet bluffing with non-allin bets when readless is a different story, and I'm willing to consider arguments that this leads to the best expectation for hands like J4s. However, the math is pretty clear that it's spew to jam with these sorts of hands without evidence that your opponent is very likely opening a wide range.Note also, as per the "Do you call too tight OOP?" article, we're still playing a wide range even 20bb, about 56% of hands readless, with the borders debateable. I do think that if you're only playing 45% of hands at this stack depth readless, you're bleeding away a lot of money.I'll open this up to comments/questions.
1st (even after 12 hours lol, gotta go out but read this one later for sure) ty Mers
"3-bet bluffing with non-allin bets when readless is a different story, and I'm willing to consider arguments that this leads to the best expectation for hands like J4s. However, the math is pretty clear that it's spew to jam with these sorts of hands without evidence that your opponent is very likely opening a wide range."Does anyone here 3 bet bluff with these type of hands readless at this stack depth? If its a spew to shove because we don't think he opens wide enough, doesn't that make it a pretty borederline 3 bet bluff? If we're basing out action vs an average oppenent, then we can't 3 bet shove, so then If we're 3 bet bluffing we have to be under the assumption that the average opponent opening 55% is going to fold enough to a 3 bet to make it profitable. Do we think thats the case? I actually don't, I think we're going to get jammed on or fatted too often here.Personally I just don't do it readless, but if you guys think its profitable I'd incorporate it. Playing turbos I hardly ever get to 20bb readless though and have some kind of idea what I can 3 bet bluff with, but I've recently started getting into St's so I'm very interested in what you guys think about this.
20BB deep vs 55% minraiser, how well shoving does compared to flatting with offsuit weak aces and suited weak aces (A2-A7)?How about medium suited/connected hands, say T7o, 85s, J7s?How does our jamming expectation with those hands change if villian is raising 65%?
New Coaching Page
Lifetime with A2o-A7o, A2s-A5s flatting 20-25bb deep, I'm around -0.3 for 1200 hands. Because I am more likely to jam the suited and stronger aces, that expectation is weighted towards the A2o-A5o type stuff. I only have 211 hands of A2s-A5s at positive expectation flatting, but way too small to make a sample.\J7s is closer to 0EV flatting, 85s/T7o more in the -0.3 to -0.6 range in my estimation.Jamming expectation goes way up when villain is raising 65%. I posted tables of expectation against a 70% raiser for us to talk through, check them out here.
Finally having a bit of time to go through these more in depth, and man this series of articles are really awesome.I think you used to advocate just flatting QJs, KTs and KJo vs a mr 20bbs deep, and 3betting nominal just KJs and KQ in that area. Have you changed your mind on those 3 hands, am I making up that you used to flat them, or do you still think expectation is going to be pretty close between flatting and 3betting?
I've definitely changed my mind about those hands (if I said we should flat before). I think they're all great hands to 3bet/call and dominate a lot of our opponent's flatting range. No need to make it small, imo, just potsized is good.
Ha! Found proof :)"I think QJs is usually going to be a little too weak though and better to have in your flatting range" (Andres-A's thread)You reasoned that it plays much worse vs KQ-K9 in villain's 3bet flatting range. Still think it's worth it vs all the Q8+, J8+, T9 etc right?
Yeah, I do think it's strong enough now. It's very borderline though.
Hey, another great thread.Just wanna se if I get this right. Do you push A2s+ and A5o+? If so, why do you push your AJ+ instead of 3B?Is it because we wont get much action when we hit the A? And AJ+ dont dominate as much hands as KJ+, QJ? Do you think that we should call a 4B with KTs+, KJo, QJo+? Why do you call with K4o, Q6o and other hands that have a worse EV then folding?
"And AJ+ dont dominate as much hands as KJ+, QJ?"Yes, KQ actually has better equity against a flatting range than AK does. "Do you think that we should call a 4B with KTs+, KJo, QJo+?"In general you don't 3bet this hand <25bb deep if you plan on folding to a shove (you just get obliterated by small pairs and some Ax hands that will jam), but there are exceptions.As for the Q6o question, that table is the expectation from JAMMING. Very different from the expectation from calling.
So you dont 3B any Ax? Only calling with A-rag 20-25bb and pushing the rest? Do you start pushing the A-rags <20bb? "Do you think that we should call a 4B with KTs+, KJo, QJo+?In general you don't 3bet this hand <25bb deep if you plan on folding to a shove (you just get obliterated by small pairs and some Ax hands that will jam), but there are exceptions. "What are the exceptions? So without reads we should 3B KTs+, KJo, QJo+ and call a 4B? "As for the Q6o question, that table is the expectation from JAMMING. Very different from the expectation from calling."Ok, thought so, just wanted to be sure :) How does your calling range change if he makes it 3x instead of 2x?
The chart is a good approximation of what to do without reads. So I'd be flatting QJo and 3bet/calling KTs, etc.The worst ace-rag is a flat unless you know your opponent opens fairly wide.Calling range changes a ton obv.Read through jhub's and kingkong's threads, a lot of the answers to these questions are around :)