hi guys
villain in this hand was pretty passive postflop. he only seemed to continue if he hits sth.
flop: i have the flop monopolized. against an aggressive player this is a bet for me for balancing issues, but against someone who will fold everything but a pocket pair, i´ll rather check back
turn: i could bet the five, but i´d rather give him another chance to make a full house.
river: he checks again, i bet, suspecting a fold, but he minraises. how much do you reraise? make it look fishy and push? minraise again and hope he spazzes out? something in between?
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | Hero | 1664 | |
| BB | Villain | 1336 |
Effective Stacks: 17bb
Blinds 40/80
Pre-Flop (120, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero calls 40, Villain checks
Flop (160, 2 players)
Villain checks, Hero checks
Turn (160, 2 players)
Villain checks, Hero checks
River (160, 2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets 80, Villain raises to 160, Hero raises to ???
Considering he's passive postflop, I doubt he's ever minraise bluffing on this board and even if he is bluffing here somehow I doubt he's going to be induced to reraise bluff over you if you don't push all in. I expect Jx here all day just push all in, don't see him folding to any betsizing.
Also, Turn check is fine too don't see anything else calling expect 5x and Ax, which Ax prob raises more often preflop
Hi there Dipl.Komp.
For me it all depends whether villain is a competant player. Against a fish, I would expect the J would call a shove, every time. However, if you were playing against a solid reg, the shove would not work, I wouldn't think. Something in the region of 500 - 600 chips would be a better bet in that case, and he will very likely call to chop vs your percieved Jx.
This is where Sharkscope comes in handy, lol.
hi adam
in case of that player i think you don´t need sharkscope to find out he´s a fish :)
in case of that player i think a jam would have been the best choice, i agree with both of you.
We have the nuts.
So we always win the 400 in the pot regardless of what size we raise to.
We are therefore interested in the marginal value we gain from villain calling a reraise.
The min we can reraise is 320 and the max we can reraise is all in to 1176.
The size we should pick will depend on villain's price sensitivity.
The EV of reraising = cx
where c = % times villain calls
x = size of villain's call = 4B - (3B - R)
4B = size of our 4B = (320,1176)
3B = size of villain's 3B = 160
R = our raise when checked to on river = 80
EV(4B) = c(4B - 3B + R) = c(4B - 80)
Note that because we are guaranteed to win the 400 in the pot (we have the nuts) that the EV(4B) is measuring the marginal EV beyond the 400 only. That is, the times villain's always folds no matter what we raise is benchmarked at EV = 0.
In the case where we click it back and reraise to 320.
If villain calls say 30% of the time, our EV would be:
S
1336
<= effective stack
Pf
160
<= limped pot on flop
Pr0
160
<= pot at start of river
R
80
<= hero raises when checked to
Pr1
240
3B
160
<= villain 3B "click back" 3B
Pr2
400
4B
320
<= hero 4B
Pr2
720
C
240
<= villain calls
Pr3
960
<= final pot size after villain calls
PO
25%
<= pot odds layed to villain
c
30%
<= call %
EV(4B)
72
<= marginal EV of 4B
Following the same methodology, if we model a marginal EV sensitivity for various calling % and 4B bet sizes.
4B
320
491
662
834
1005
1176
c
100%
240
411
582
754
925
1096
80%
192
329
466
603
740
877
60%
144
247
349
452
555
658
40%
96
164
233
301
370
438
20%
48
82
116
151
185
219
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
If villain calls our click back raise 100% of the time, we net 240 in marginal EV.
So if we solve for c when EV(4B) = 240, we can find the c % that villain needs to call that we are indifferent between clicking it back and him always calling and 4B all in and him calling sometimes.
If villain calls an all in bet > 22% of the time, 4B jamming is better than clicking it back and always being called.
Fish don't fold full houses and if you play Jx the same way he could think that he's splitting enough to call (there is only on K left in the deck from his perspective vs 2 J)
Ship it :)
As played I'd ship the river, I think you're going to see a lot of Jx there. Yes, there is the occasional chance he may fold a non JX boat if you stick it in but this is such a great opportunity to end the tournament immediately.
I'd probably bet flop, check/bet turn, and bet river. Even passive fish are going to call you there with A high and sometimes QJ/broadway type hands.You're going to probably get action if he has a pair on the flop anyway.