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Theo2014's picture
Variance

Am I right in assuming if I continue playing I should eventually be a winning player? Im still relatively new to hypers and had read about variance but I dont think I was mentally prepared. The sample size is small because I set the date from 19/11/2014 because that was when Ipoker changed the game structure but if I open it up further the trend is pretty much the same (over 800ish games).

 

Theo2014's picture
Forgot to add all games are

Forgot to add all games are at the 2 euros limit, the downswing is aprox 50 buyins. 

pbogz1114's picture
Well at those stakes it would

Well at those stakes it would seem to me that you would be a winning player. A bigger sample size would help for sure. The swings can get bad. I personally think looking at your graphs can be -EV. Either your running below EV and your mad or you are running above EV and felt like you played great and feel slightly agitated. I'd just keep on grinding away, along with studying to improve your overall gameplay.

 

 

 

-pbogz

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Theo2014's picture
Thanks Pbogz

Hi Pbogz,

Thanks for the reply.

I totally agree with you on monitoring EV lines can be -EV. However, as a new player to hypers (not prepared for the variance) I do believe I may have quit if I didn’t have some sort of motivation to continue; the ability to track results and see the EV of my plays/games has been the thing to keep me grinding.

I’m hoping to hit a 1k games in December, a personal goal for me a 1000 per month. (Small stakes, small goals) Hopefully that will end positive...

In regards to studying (besides hand history reviews) I found myself watching a lot of videos and reading a lot of Poker Maths book (Moshmen and Chens in particular) plus Tiptons (all awesome books, though haven't fully finished one yet). A friend recommended PokerSnowie, so now I’m trying a new approach to my studying; playing a 25bb deep freezeout challenge vs. PokerSnowie and reviewing errors and blunders, this fits in with time I can't play online poker but do have access to PokerSnowie, time I would usually use to read poker related material. I find this to be a fresh approach to my studying, though currently only using my months free trial. Do you think utilizing PokerSnowie this way is a good way to study the game?

I do plan on reading the Mental Game of Poker soon...

Theo