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Thu, 01/23/2014 - 01:47

cdon3822

Villain 3b turn lead after checking back dry flop in single raised pot @ 21BB

Info on villain / reads:

We have some matches together.

Villain plays tighter than "standard" from the button, only opening about 50% of hands at early levels and opens up (correctly) as effective stacks decrease, electing to either min raise or jam from the button (I haven't seen him limp). He has only cbet 40% of the time.

Interestingly, he plays more hands from the BB, calling about 50% of the time and 3b about 25% of the time. He has been 3b NAI until he gets shallower 10-15BB at which point he 3b jams.

Specific notes

[P] raise call K6s @ 14BB

[P] call jam KJo @ 10BB

[P] 3b jam A9o @ 20BB

[P] call jam K9o @ 9BB

[P] raise limp @ 15BB

[P] raise call A8o @ 10BB

[F] c/c KQ5, bet river biggish when turn checked back => c/c top pair or improved?

[F] check back 997 tt, check down A3 A hi

[F] c/c 2 streets 98 on A93 2

[F] check back K72, fold to turn lead on T turn

Thought process:

Going read on villain is he isn't making too many huge mistakes with respect to overplaying his hands. He wants to get it in good and doesn't seem to splash money around too much without a hand. General perception is he is playing value oriented ranges and prefers to play them passively without a strong hand.

Preflop:

J7o OOP @ 21BB facing min raise from ~ 50% opener

1. I flat, could even consider folding this hand vs such a tight opening range?

Flop:

Flop top pair on dry board, happy times

Check to villain, planning to c/r for value on board where I can feasibly be c/r bluffing

Villain checks back, I expect his checking back range to be Ax, Kx, 5x 2x

Turn:

Turn brings an overcard Q, but it doesn't hit his checking back range much.

I bet small to target his weak showdown value hands in his flop checking back range.

Villain reraises. My spidey sense is tingling => what does he check back flop and then reraise turn lead with? Did I induce a bluff with my small turn stab?

His range at this stage is:

value = Q5, Q2, AQ, KQ, [slow plays? = 75, AA, KK, QQ]

bluffs = this guy hasn't shown he's capable of bluffing, not sure what he would check back flop then start bluffing with here?

I don't think I'm getting called by worse if I jam and don't really think I have much fold equity vs this guy anyway so I elect to flat.

River:

River comes a 9.

The draws it completes are irrelevant given how we got to the river.

I check to villain and he bets 150 into 340.

I think he wants a call when he bets this size and I fold my bluff catcher.

2. What do you make of the turn 3b + river 2barrel after checking back the flop here with respect to reading villain's hand?

3. I'm putting him on a narrow range of value hands (which might be overly nitty of me?), which holdings can he turn into a bluff on the turn?

4. Is the turn a flat, or should I simply be folding at that stage given I will be playing OOP on the river and more than likely facing another bet vs a range I might be drawing nearly dead vs?