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Benthfc's picture
Is this the right way to analyse your hands?

Hi All,

This is my first post in the forum and I'm really just looking for a bit of help to see if I am on the right track with hand analysis for HUSNG.

This is my first attempt at a written hand review so is very basic.It would be great to know if I'm thinking in the right direction, or if I'm totally missing something/making a maths error etc. (hence I've deliberately written out my mental calculations)

Without further ado;

15/30 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players • FullTiltPoker
$1 Heads-Up Sit & Go

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight.com

BB villain 1410  
SB hero 1590  

Effective Stacks: 47bb

Blinds 15/30

  • Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is SB
  • cKc2
hero raises to 90, villain raises to 270, hero raises to 600, villain goes all-in 1410, hero folds

 

  • Final Pot: 1200
 
  • villain wins 2010 ( won +600 )
  • hero lost -600

 

My Notes

[P] After 68 hands Villain VPIP less than 50% against my Open. Hero K2s top 40% card so worth open as 50% fold equity plus 20% chance of being ahead if called/3bet.

Villain 3bet 3x my 3xBB Open to 9BB. So pot odds are 6 BB to win 12BB or 1:2

Hero chance to win is 43% (using Equilab) against range of top 50% of hands. But Villain only 3bet 20% of possible hands so far, leaving 37.5% chance to win against range of top 20% hands. (perhaps adjusted up a bit for the occasional Villain 3-bet bluff, plus position post flop - though Villain has momentum) . Either way seems a solid call? 

For some reason I re-raised and I think based on the above that that was a mistake. I see this as my main learning point from the hand.

Then, Given that i was re-raised all in, I could only assume I was facing a much stronger hand than mine, seeing as I already had the villain as favourite for SD. But I was getting good odds to call if I could win more than 30% of the pots. Which would be the case against a range of the top 10% of hands (again using Equilab).

In the moment I think I put him on a hand that dominated mine, say top 5%, which would be a -EV play. I didn't work this out at the table though, I believe I folded pretty much instantly - so another lesson there to stop and take a moment to think.

The other consideration is that as he had been playing fairly tight for HU I possibly figured I could quickly win back some blinds and would have a better chance of winning the longer I stuck in the game.

Still not enough stats to get a read on the 4th raise (that being the only one so far!), so I'm not sure if folding was correct or not.

Thoughts?

P.S. using coffee HUD lite and PT4 for my info.

P.P.S. I later learnt this player really likes to slow play medium + strong hands post flop (so is either passive or trying to trap me - which might have indicated he was more likely bluffing with the 4bet?). He also rarely folds to my CB (23%) and usually just calls to see the turn. This covers the strength of his hand well. I have been trying to push him off with another CB on the turn, where he seems to fold about 40% of the time, call 40% and raise 20%. Pretty much every time he's called and checked again on the river I've checked behind and more often than not he has had the nuts (thanks to the turn or river) or flopped a very strong hand.

Any articles or videos you can point me to for dealing with the above type of play (Villain calling CB's a lot) would also be great. Thanks.

para's picture
I'm not a very good player

I'm not a very good player but I've noticed that in the lower stakes people rarely fold to 4-bets - I see people call 4-bet shoves with hands like A4o deep-stacked. Maybe this would work if you knew that your opponent 3-bets widely and folds to 4-bets, but in this case I would probably just fold because re-raising commits so many chips and K2s (I think) doesn't play so well enough in 3-bet pots to warrant a call.

I'm also having some difficulty with opponents who float often (and try to steal on later streets) but some adjustments I've made so far are:

  • Opening somewhat tighter
  • Barreling (not doing this too often and on board textures where you can fold out some of their weak floats - if they don't fold their weak floats then they are really loose players and you just have to bet aggressively with a made hand)
  • Keeping up the aggression: I used to never bluff against loose players and it worked quite fine for fishy players but I think it's an incorrect adjustment sometimes because more aggressive players just run you over if you don't fight back. Rather than trying to show aggression in every pot, choosing good opportunities to bluff seems to receive more respect because you aren't doing it too frequently. Of course, if they are over aggressive (especially with sizing) you just have to call them down when they are very likely to be bluffing and you just earn so many chips (you lose more pots in number but win more chips overall)

 

 

Benthfc's picture
Thanks for the tips para.

Thanks for the tips para.

I will definitely experiment with these adjustments as well next time I'm facing a similar opponent.

I hadn't really thought about how K2s plays in 3bet pots, I guess I'm not quite experienced enough yet!

 

adam25185's picture
Hi there BenthfcBut Villain

Hi there Benthfc

But Villain only 3bet 20% of possible hands so far, leaving 37.5% chance to win against range of top 20% hands.

If you flat call, K2s plays poorly post-flop, since villain's 3betting range contains many better Kx that have us dominted. Even when we hit a pair of kings, we are likely to be behind to a better kicker if all the chips go in. Additionally, a pair of 2s does us little good, so the hand has little drawing potential. Folding preflop is best. On the other hand, if villain had raised to 180 chips, rather than 270, you might reconsider a flat call.

 For some reason I re-raised and I think based on the above that that was a mistake. I see this as my main learning point from the hand.

Indeed. K2o is unlikely to be good - ever - vs an opponent 3betting only 20% of hands. Even if villain were 3betting 100% of hands, K2o is actually barely ahead. If you were sitting with 12 bbs, and opponent really was 3betting 100%, you might reconsider.

In the moment I think I put him on a hand that dominated mine, say top 5%, which would be a -EV play. I didn't work this out at the table though, I believe I folded pretty much instantly - so another lesson there to stop and take a moment to think.

The fold to the 5bet shove is pretty standard and you made the correct play. Your mistake was not folding to the 3bet.

 

Hope this helps.